Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Name: Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?
End: 2026-10-16T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$62.22K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Vol

$62.22K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $62.22K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $62.22K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$62.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Each market in this event will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that P

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 16, 2026 (5 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** Each market in this event will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that P

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market cre"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $43.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $43.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld