This prediction market addresses whether Lee Jae-myung, the leader of South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before the end of 2026. Lee is a central figure in South Korean politics, having served as Governor of Gyeonggi Province from 2018 to 2021 and as the DPK's presidential candidate in the 2022 election, which he narrowly lost to Yoon Suk Yeol. Since that defeat, he has faced multiple, ongoing criminal investigations and trials related to allegations of corruption, bribery, and breach of trust, primarily stemming from his time as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi. The question of his potential arrest is a major political and legal drama in South Korea, reflecting deep partisan divisions and testing the independence of the country's judicial system. People are interested because his arrest would dramatically reshape the political landscape, potentially destabilizing the opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election and triggering significant public protest. The market gauges the perceived likelihood of a seismic event in one of Asia's most important democracies.

Historical Context

The legal scrutiny of Lee Jae-myung has deep roots in South Korea's political tradition, where former presidents and high-ranking officials frequently face corruption investigations after leaving office. This pattern includes the convictions and imprisonments of conservative presidents Park Geun-hye (2017) and Lee Myung-bak (2018). However, investigations into a sitting opposition leader of Lee's stature while he is actively contesting power are less common and highly charged. The specific allegations against Lee largely originate from his tenure as Mayor of Seongnam from 2010 to 2018. The most prominent case involves the Daejang-dong land development project, approved in 2015, where prosecutors allege a corrupt scheme generated hundreds of billions of won in illicit profits for private developers, with Lee accused of granting improper favors. A separate case involves allegations that Lee, as Gyeonggi Governor, illegally facilitated a company's $8 million payment to North Korea in 2019. These investigations gained momentum after Yoon Suk Yeol, who as Prosecutor General had overseen probes into top officials during the previous Moon Jae-in administration, won the presidency in March 2022. The National Assembly, where the DPK holds a majority, voted down a motion to lift Lee's immunity from arrest in February 2023, showcasing the intense political polarization surrounding his legal status.

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