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Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

New business applications monthly record in 2026?

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New business applications monthly record in 2026?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Price Spread

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max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will US business applications be above 546,719 in any 2026 month?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US business applications be above 546,719 in any 2026 month?	Kalshi	52%

AI Analysis

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52%

Top Probability

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About This Event

2026 If the US business applications are above 546,719 in any month during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “U.S. business applications” refers to Business Applications: Total for All NAICS in the United States, FRED series BABATOTALSAUS. This series is reported monthly, seasonally adjusted, and sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics. This market will use the first value published by Federal Reserve Economic Data for each relevant

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New business applications monthly record in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the US business applications are above 546,719 in any month during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “U.S. business applications” refers to Business Applications: Total for All NAICS in the United States, FRED series BABATOTALSAUS. This series is reported monthly, seasonally adjusted, and sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics.

This market will use the first value published by Federal Reserve Economic Data for each relevant

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the US business applications are above 546,719 in any month during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “U.S. business applications” refers to Business Applications: Total for All NAICS in the United States, FRED series BABATOTALSAUS. This series is"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US business applications be above 546,719 in any 2026 month?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics