GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Name: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Vol

$12.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?	Poly	96%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	Poly	81%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$12.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $92
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech