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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Kimi K3 released by…?

Name: Kimi K3 released by…?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$37.50K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Kimi K3 released by…?

Vol

$37.50K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $37.50K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $37.50K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	Poly	44%
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	Poly	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$37.50K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”. Products l

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kimi K3 released by…?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.

Products l

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech