Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?

Total Volume

$777.96

Events

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?

Vol

$777.96

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $777.96

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $777.96

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)	Kalshi	90%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)	Kalshi	79%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)	Kalshi	60%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)	Kalshi	47%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)	Kalshi	34%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)	Kalshi	24%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)	Kalshi	12%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)	Kalshi	8%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)	Kalshi	5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$777.96

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Worldwide on Oct 12, 2026 If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is X or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude, Mw, and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, s

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Worldwide on Oct 12, 2026

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is X or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude, Mw, and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude ("

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $778
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $139
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $290
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $149
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?

Volume$777.96

Markets10

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KALSHI

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHIClimate

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (

KALSHI

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢

KALSHIClimate

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (

KALSHI

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIClimate

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (

KALSHI

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIClimate

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (

KALSHI

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIClimate

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 12, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

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Events (1)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?

Markets (10)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

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