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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

Name: What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
End: 2026-06-30T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$115.06K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

Vol

$115.06K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $115.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $115.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?	Poly	82%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?	Poly	42%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	Poly	21%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	Poly	12%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	Poly	6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$115.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorde"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $76.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $44.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $24.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $22.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?

Volume$115.06K

Markets6

6 of 6

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorde

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.7¢No 94.3¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

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Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

Markets (6)

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

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Discussion

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