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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

Name: Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
End: 2026-10-28T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.51K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

Vol

$22.51K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	Poly	82%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Poly	15%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Poly	0%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Poly	0%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$22.51K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/even

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 28, 2026 (54 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/even

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. 

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $12.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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