$214.54
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$214.54
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed a
Prediction markets currently price the Republican Party's chance of winning Texas's 35th Congressional District seat at 45%. This indicates the market views the 2026 race as essentially a toss-up, with a slight edge given to the Democratic Party's 55% implied probability. The thin trading volume, however, suggests this is a preliminary assessment with low liquidity, meaning prices could be volatile as more information and capital enter the market closer to the election.
The near-even odds reflect the district's recent competitive history and its underlying demographic profile. TX-35, stretching from Austin to San Antonio, is a Democratic-leaning district but one that can be influenced by national political trends and turnout. The incumbent, Representative Greg Casar, is a progressive Democrat who won the 2022 election with 72.3% of the vote, but the district's Partisan Voter Index (D+9) suggests it is not immune to a strong Republican challenge in a favorable national environment, such as a midterm election.
Furthermore, the 45% Republican probability likely incorporates the historical tendency for the president's party to lose seats in midterm elections. As the 2026 election will be a midterm following the 2024 presidential race, markets are factoring in a potential headwind for Democrats, even in seats they currently hold securely. This national dynamic is currently balancing against the district's inherent Democratic tilt.
The odds will be highly sensitive to the national political climate developing through 2025 and 2026. Key catalysts include the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, which will set the stage for the midterm narrative, and potential retirement announcements by the incumbent. Should Representative Casar decide not to seek re-election, the market would likely shift significantly, perhaps favoring Republicans more strongly in an open-seat scenario. Conversely, a strong Democratic national environment or a high-profile Republican recruitment failure could solidify the Democratic price above 60%. Major policy debates and economic conditions in the year leading up to November 2026 will be the ultimate drivers of final momentum.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The TX-35 House Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining which political party will win Texas's 35th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. This market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate declared the winner after all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by designated resolution sources. The election will be held on November 4, 2026, with the outcome determined by voters across the district's counties, which include parts of San Antonio and Austin. Texas's 35th congressional district is a politically significant area that has drawn national attention due to its demographic shifts and competitive nature in recent election cycles. The district was created following the 2010 census and has been represented since 2013 by Democrat Greg Casar, who succeeded Democrat Lloyd Doggett when Doggett moved to the 37th district after redistricting. The 2026 election will occur during a midterm cycle where control of the House of Representatives may be at stake, adding national significance to this local race. Political observers are interested in this market because TX-35 serves as a bellwether for Democratic strength in urban Texas and Republican efforts to make inroads in diverse metropolitan areas. The district's changing demographics, with growing Latino and young professional populations, make it a testing ground for both parties' outreach strategies and policy messages ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Texas's 35th congressional district was created in 2011 following the 2010 United States census, which awarded Texas four additional congressional seats due to population growth. The district was designed as a majority-minority opportunity district under the Voting Rights Act, connecting predominantly Latino communities in San Antonio with progressive neighborhoods in Austin through a narrow corridor along Interstate 35. Democrat Lloyd Doggett, who had represented Austin for decades in Congress, chose to run in the new 35th district after his previous district was dismantled in redistricting. Doggett won the first election in 2012 with 63.9% of the vote against Republican Susan Narvaiz, establishing Democratic dominance in the district. He was reelected four times with similar margins before announcing he would run in the newly created 37th district following the 2020 census redistricting. This created an open seat in 2022, which was won by progressive Democrat Greg Casar with 72.3% of the vote, the largest margin in the district's history. The district's political evolution reflects broader demographic changes in Texas, particularly the growth of the Latino population and urbanization trends that have made Central Texas increasingly Democratic at the local level while remaining competitive in statewide elections. The 2026 election will mark the fourth election cycle for the district and could signal whether Democratic gains in urban Texas are sustainable or whether Republicans can capitalize on national political trends during a midterm election.
The outcome of the TX-35 House election has significant implications for national politics and governance. As a district that connects two major Texas cities with diverse populations, it serves as a laboratory for both parties' outreach to Latino voters, young professionals, and urban-suburban coalitions. A Democratic victory would reinforce the party's growing strength in Texas's metropolitan areas and potentially provide momentum for statewide candidates in 2028. A Republican win would demonstrate the GOP's ability to compete in diverse urban districts and could signal broader political realignments. Beyond symbolic importance, the election directly affects representation for approximately 766,000 constituents in matters ranging from federal funding for transportation along the I-35 corridor to immigration policies affecting border communities. The district includes major employers like the University of Texas at Austin, military facilities, and technology companies, making economic policies particularly relevant. With control of the House of Representatives often determined by narrow margins, each seat carries disproportionate importance for legislative agendas, committee assignments, and leadership positions. The TX-35 winner will help shape policy on issues from healthcare and education to energy and national security, with consequences extending far beyond district boundaries.
As of early 2025, Representative Greg Casar is serving his first term in Congress and has not formally announced his 2026 reelection campaign, though he is expected to run again. The Republican field remains undefined, with potential candidates assessing the political landscape following the 2024 election results. Texas will undergo its next redistricting process before the 2026 elections based on litigation outcomes and potential court-ordered adjustments to congressional maps. The district's boundaries could see minor changes that might affect its partisan composition. National political conditions, including presidential approval ratings and the state of the economy, will increasingly influence candidate recruitment and resource allocation as the election cycle progresses.
The district includes parts of Travis County (containing most of Austin), parts of Bexar County (containing most of San Antonio), and all of Caldwell County. The district connects these areas through a narrow corridor along Interstate 35.
No, the district has only elected Democratic representatives since its creation in 2012. Lloyd Doggett served from 2013 to 2023, followed by Greg Casar who took office in 2023.
The district was created through the 2010 redistricting process and modified in 2021. Ongoing litigation over Texas's congressional maps could lead to further adjustments before 2026, potentially affecting the district's boundaries and demographic composition.
Key issues include transportation infrastructure along the I-35 corridor, affordable housing in Austin and San Antonio, immigration policy given proximity to the border, healthcare access, and economic development balancing technology growth with traditional industries.
The filing deadline will likely be in December 2025, approximately 11 months before the November 2026 election. Exact dates will be set by the Texas Secretary of State's office in accordance with state election laws.
Greg Casar raised approximately $2.1 million for his 2024 campaign, while Republican challenger Dan McQueen raised about $450,000. Total spending by both candidates and outside groups exceeded $3 million.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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