IL-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.7K
1
10
IL-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.7K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 30-35% at 41.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 30-35%41.5%
- Democrat 35-40%25.6%
- Democrat 25-30%7.1%
- Democrat 40-45%6.3%
- Democrat 10-20%5.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $20.7K
Reported volume · provider units
10
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0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 IL-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "IL-10 House Election Margin of Victory" resolves on the margin of victory between the top two candidates. The margin is the absolute difference between the two candidates' shares of valid votes, calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by all valid votes cast [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1].
Contract wording matters for comparison. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The Republican contract asks whether that party's candidate wins, which is a different question from the margin brackets [1]. The rules also specify tiebreaks, a replacement-nominee rule, and a recount rule that keeps the market open until the official vote is final [1].
The source states that the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. This is part of the contract text, not a confirmed event record. The listed end time for all markets is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say the market resolves to "Other" if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:51:41.958Z [1]. These are times for a past snapshot, not live prices, and they do not show how the market stands at any later moment.
The sample includes 10 markets from one provider event, all of them included. The coverage record shows no partial sample [1]. Even so, the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a single platform, no cross-platform comparison applies.
The listed Yes prices are 0.51 for 30% to 35%, 0.2615 for 35% to 40%, 0.1395 for 25% to 30%, and smaller values for the other brackets, with the lowest at 0.004 for 50% or more [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the 10 markets add up to roughly 1.1 in this snapshot, so they do not form a clean distribution that sums to one. Separate contracts with different prices are not an arbitrage opportunity by themselves.
What remains uncertain
This evidence does not explain why any price was where it was, how many traders hold each view, or what recent events may have affected the market. It also does not confirm the election date, any candidate's nomination status, or the final result.
Readers should check the current listing and the official state certification process before drawing conclusions from these figures [1].
References
- Polymarket: IL-10 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 election for Illinois's 10th congressional district in the U.S. House. The election is expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Illinois will elect 17 U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district, on that same date, alongside other House, Senate, and state and local elections [3]. The contract does not ask who wins the seat in the simple sense. Instead, it measures the gap between the top two finishers. The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties are the only options labeled "Democrat" and "Republican." Independent candidates do not count as either party option [1]. The market sets its outcomes as margin brackets, such as ranges of several percentage points, along with a separate contract tied to whether a Republican candidate wins the seat [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
Historical Context
The IL-10 contract is tied to a specific future election, so its history is limited to the broader electoral calendar. The 2018 United States House elections were held on November 6, 2018. They were midterm elections held during the first term of President Donald Trump, and voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts in the 50 states to serve in the 116th Congress [2]. The 2026 Illinois House elections follow the same structure of one representative per district, with Illinois primary elections held on March 17, 2026 [3]. These sources describe general House election structure. They do not supply IL-10 vote history or results for prior cycles.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the leading candidate wins the IL-10 House race, expressed as the gap in valid vote share between the top two candidates [1]. Because the margin is measured using valid votes, the outcome depends on the official count rather than unofficial tallies. The rules say the market will resolve based on the official vote count once it has been made official [1]. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. Credible reporting may also be used if there is an overwhelming consensus [1]. The timing rules matter for understanding when a contract can settle. The listed end time is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is the provider's listed end time, not an announced result date. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. If a recount starts before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. Ties also have specific rules that determine which bracket applies [1]. When a reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Traders should read the full rules before interpreting any bracket, since the boundary and tiebreak rules can change which contract settles.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the IL-10 House election expected to be held?
The 2026 IL-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Illinois 2026 House elections are scheduled for the same date [3].
Does an independent candidate count as an option in this market?
No. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name in the contract is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated from the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a recount is underway?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
IL-17 House Election Margin of Victory
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Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat?
Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for IL-17?
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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election?
Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for IL-17?
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