UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026? | PredictPedia

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Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

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Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?	Kalshi	52%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?	Kalshi	51%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?	Kalshi	51%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?	Kalshi	51%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.50%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.90%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.90%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.80%?	Kalshi	50%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.70%?	Kalshi	50%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q2 2026 10Y

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate, 10 Yr, for June 30, 2026, end of Q2 2026, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (10 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.90%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.80%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.70%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.90%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Kalshi

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UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?

UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?

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Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?

Markets (15)

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?

Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?

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