GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

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10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

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Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	14%

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About This Event

On Dec 31, 2026 If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above X on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 31, 2026

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above X on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 5.14% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

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KALSHI

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.99% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 5.14% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 5.09% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

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Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

Markets (4)

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?

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