US airline fares CPI for April 2026 | PredictPedia

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11 markets tracked

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	95%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	95%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 286.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	95%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 284.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	95%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	95%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 280.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	95%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 292.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	93%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 294.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	88%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 296.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	86%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	77%
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?	Kalshi	74%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US airline fares CPI for April 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** April 2026

If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 300.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. Cit"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 296.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 294.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 292.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 286.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 284.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 280.0ㅤ?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

89¢

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US airline fares CPI for April 2026

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Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

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Events (1)

US airline fares CPI for April 2026

Markets (11)

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 286.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 286.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 284.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 284.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?

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Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US airline fares CPI for April 2026

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 290.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 286.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 286.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 284.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 284.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?

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