Market snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?

Reported volume

K 0 contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?

Vol

K 0 contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 4.92% or below at 62%.

Kalshi

4.92% or below62%
4.91% or below59%
4.9% or below55%
4.89% or below52.5%
4.88% or below49.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

20 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Nov 6, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	62.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	59.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	55.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	52.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.88% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	46.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.87% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	43.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.86% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	40.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.85% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	37.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	35.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	32.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	30.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	27.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	25.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.79% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	23.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.78% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	22.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.77% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	20.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.76% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	18.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.75% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	16.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.74% by Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	15.0%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 0 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

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Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

By Nov 6, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 0 contracts
Coverage: 20 of 20 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.93; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 62.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 38.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.93% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.92; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 59.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 41.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.92% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.91; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 55.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 45.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.91% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.90; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 52.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 47.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.90% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.89; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.89% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.88% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.88; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.88% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.87% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.87; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 43.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 56.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.87% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.86% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.86; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 40.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 59.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.86% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.85% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.85; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 37.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 62.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.85% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.84; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 35.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.84% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.83; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 32.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 67.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.83% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.82; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 30.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.82% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.81; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.81% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.80; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 25.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 74.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.79% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.79; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.79% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.78% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.78; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 22.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 78.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.78% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.77% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.77; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 20.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.77% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.76% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.76; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.76% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.75% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.75; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.75% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.74% by Nov 6, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26NOV06L-T4.74; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26nov06l
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 85.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.74% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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