Israeli forces enter Beirut by...? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

Name: Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$205.77K

Events

Markets

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Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $205.77K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $205.77K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$205.77K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military by the listed daye 11:59 PM PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military by the listed daye 11:59 PM PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be consi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $171.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.8K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 19.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $171.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

0¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5pPtRz" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?"></iframe>

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Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

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Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)