Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform3 EventsPolitics

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory

Name: South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$55.90K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory

Vol

$55.90K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $46.54K

Kalshi

markets · $9.36K

Price Spread

0.5%avg

max 0.5%

Price gaps

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $55.90K

83%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota"; listed deadline 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 10:34:45 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "South Dakota Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "South Dakota Governor Election Winner". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? Related contracts	98%	98%	1%
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? Related contracts	—	2%	—

Single-Platform Markets(9)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$55.90K

Volume

Markets

33.2%

Price Gap

About This Event

The 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes ea

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Dakota Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of South Dakota pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of South Dakota pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rule"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $55.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $184.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.30)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (12 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Dakota
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $17.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.4% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 45% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $821
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 40%-45%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $708
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 35%-40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $796
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $955
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $984
  DATA: [Yes: 11.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 0%-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $960
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 3 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "South Dakota Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

KALSHIElections

South Dakota Governor winner?

In 2026 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of South Dakota pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

Volume$9.36K

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

South Dakota Governor Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have wit

Volume$27.03K

Markets2

11 of 11

Sort:

Related contracts

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 10:34:45 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average97.8%

Polymarket+0.5 pp

98.1%

Kalshi

97.6%

Difference:0.5 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 98.1¢No 1.9¢

KKalshi

Yes 97.6¢No 2.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of South Dakota pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rule

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 11.1¢No 88.9¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 0.9 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5tf_qR" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Events (3)

South Dakota Governor winner?

South Dakota Governor Election Winner

Markets (2)

Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Deadline

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

South Dakota Governor winner?

South Dakota Governor Election Winner

Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Deadline

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

Embed Widget