Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? | PredictPedia

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13 markets tracked

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	95%
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	49%
Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	13%
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	13%
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	8%
Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	6%
Will Trump next nominate James Bullard as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	6%
Will Trump next nominate Lorie Logan as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	4%
Will Trump next nominate David Malpass as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	4%
Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	3%
Will Trump next nominate Philip Jefferson as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	3%
Will Trump next nominate Marc Sumerlin as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	3%
Will Trump next nominate Christopher Waller as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?	Kalshi	2%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If X is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes. The nomination must be sent by the President and received by the United States Senate. This market will close and expire early following the next person fomrally nominated by the President to be member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Stephen Miran is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nomination must be sent by the President and received by the United States Senate. Early close condition: Thi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $185.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $30.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $22.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump next nominate Philip Jefferson as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump next nominate Marc Sumerlin as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump next nominate Lorie Logan as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $193
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $25.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $16.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $44.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Trump next nominate James Bullard as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $915
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Trump next nominate David Malpass as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Trump next nominate Christopher Waller as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $41.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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16¢

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Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

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Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

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Events (1)

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

Markets (13)

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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