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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner

Name: Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.75K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$2.75K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.75K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.75K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	94%
Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$2.75K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 11, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.21)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics