GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Amazonas Senate Election: 2nd Place

Name: Amazonas Senate Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.28K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Amazonas Senate Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$16.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	52%
Will Eduardo Braga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	20%
Will Wilson Lima win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	13%
Will Plinio Valério win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	4%
Will Xuxa do Amazonas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Evandro de Oliveira win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Professora Evany win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Dailson Corrêa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Ismael Munduruku win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$16.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candida

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Amazonas Senate Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candida

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $45.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Dailson Corrêa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $472
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eduardo Braga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Evandro de Oliveira win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $474
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ismael Munduruku win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $462
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Plinio Valério win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $610
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Professora Evany win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $746
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Wilson Lima win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Xuxa do Amazonas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $734
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics