GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

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M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

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5 markets tracked

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?	Kalshi	23%
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?	Kalshi	22%
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?	Kalshi	19%
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?	Kalshi	17%
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

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23%

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$0.00

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About This Event

December 2026 If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is between X and Y then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED series M2SL. The year-over-year percent change will be calculated as follows: December 2026 M2SL divided by December 2025 M2SL, minus one, expressed as a percentage and rounded to one decimal place. This mark

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026

If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is between X and Y then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED series M2SL. The year-over-year percent change will be calculated as follows: December 2026 M2SL divided by December 2025 M2SL, minus one, expressed as a percentage and rounded to one decimal place. This mark

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is at least 6.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED series "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is between 6.0% and 6.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED

KALSHI

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?

If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is between 5.5% and 5.9%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED

KALSHI

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?

If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is below 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED series M2S

KALSHI

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?

If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is between 5.0% and 5.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED

KALSHI

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?

If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is at least 6.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED series

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M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

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Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

Markets (5)

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?

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Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?

Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?

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