Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

State of Mexico Congress Election Winner

Name: State of Mexico Congress Election Winner
End: 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.16K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

State of Mexico Congress Election Winner

Vol

$3.16K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.16K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.16K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Poly	59%
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Poly	36%
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Poly	6%
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Poly	3%
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Poly	1%
Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$3.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections to elect the 75 members of the Congress of the State of Mexico are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Mexico as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each p

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** State of Mexico Congress Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 7, 2027 (239 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Legislative elections to elect the 75 members of the Congress of the State of Mexico are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Mexico as a result of this election.

Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections to elect the 75 members of the Congress of the State of Mexico are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Mexico as a result of this election.

Pa"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $40.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $242
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $881
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $326
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics