What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently estimate an 81% chance that exactly three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher will occur worldwide between February 16 and February 22, 2026. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe it is very likely we will see three major quakes in that specific week. The market assigns much lower probabilities to outcomes of zero, one, two, or four or more quakes.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The high confidence in exactly three events is based on recent global seismic activity and historical averages. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Earth typically experiences about 20 magnitude 6.0-6.9 earthquakes per month, which averages to roughly 4-5 per week. A magnitude 6.5 or higher is a more significant and less frequent event. The forecast for three in a week is slightly above the long-term statistical average, but it aligns with patterns of clustered seismic activity, where large quakes can trigger others or occur in sequences.

Traders are likely weighing current conditions on known fault lines and recent significant quakes in places like the Pacific Ring of Fire. When one major earthquake happens, it can increase stress on nearby faults, raising the short-term probability of additional large events within days or weeks.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The entire forecast period, from February 16 to February 22, 2026, is the event window. The market will resolve immediately after, based on USGS data. There are no specific scheduled events that cause earthquakes. Instead, traders monitor real-time seismic reports from the USGS and other global agencies. A large, early quake in the week could shift predictions toward higher totals, while a quiet start might lower expectations.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally effective at aggregating diverse information, including scientific data and real-time news, for near-term events with clear outcomes. For earthquakes, the "wisdom of the crowd" combines public USGS statistics with observations of current seismic clusters. However, earthquake prediction remains an imperfect science. Markets can be accurate on average frequencies over time but cannot forecast the exact timing or location of specific quakes. This market reflects a collective estimate of probability, not a certainty. Its reliability is tied to the accuracy of the underlying global seismic data used for resolution.