Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?

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$5.55K

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Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?

Vol

$5.55K

Events

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.55K

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10 markets tracked

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 28 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 37 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 36 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 35 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	98%
Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 34 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Kalshi	98%

AI Analysis

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100%

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$5.55K

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About This Event

On Oct 5, 2026 If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least X seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either, a, the time for filing legal challenges has expired without challenge,, b, any legal challenges have been finally resolved, or, c, the elected member has taken their seat in the parliament/legislature. Party

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 5, 2026

If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least X seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either, a, the time for filing legal challenges has expired without challenge,, b, any legal challenges have been finally resolved, or, c, the elected member has taken their seat in the parliament/legislature. Party

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 37 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 37 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 36 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $818
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 35 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $700
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 34 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 28 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 5, 2027): Vol $731
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?

Volume$5.55K

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) th

KALSHI

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) th

KALSHI

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) th

KALSHI

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) th

KALSHI

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) th

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Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

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Events (1)

Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?

Markets (10)

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

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Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will the Quebec Liberal Party win at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

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