GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Name: Alaska Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.85M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Vol

$1.85M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.25M

Kalshi

markets · $603.10K

Price Spread

0.8%avg

max 3.5%

Arbitrage

of 11 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.85M

67%

33%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

27 markets tracked

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(11)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	33%	32%	2%
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?ARB	2%	6%	3%
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	2%	4%	2%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	1%	0%	1%
Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	0%	0%	0%
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	0%	0%	0%
Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	0%	0%	0%
Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	0%	0%	0%
Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	0%	0%	0%
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	0%	0%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(16)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$1.85M

Volume

Markets

2.0%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Governor winner? (Person)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.  

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".  

The resolution source for this market is the Ass"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.85M
* **Total Liquidity:** $399.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.64)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (22 mkts) vs Kalshi (16 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $28.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $35.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $48.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $19.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $36.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $75.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.5% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $331.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $23.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $40.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.7% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $127.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $14.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $40.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $171.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $52.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

### 11. Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $159.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $231.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Lesil McGuire)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Bill Walker)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $83.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Lisa Murkowski)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Matthew Claman)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $112.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $27.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $37.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $12.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $20.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

In 2026 If X is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

Volume$603.10K

Markets16

POLYMARKETPolitics

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Volume$1.25M

Markets22

27 of 27

Sort:

KALSHI

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close

POLYMARKET

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average32.3%

Polymarket+1.5%

33.0%

Kalshi

31.5%

Difference:1.5%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Bernadette Wilson)

If Bernadette Wilson is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condit

Arbitrage Opportunity: 3.5% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average4.1%

Polymarket

2.4%

Kalshi+3.5%

5.9%

Difference:3.5% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 5.9¢No 94.1¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Treg Taylor)

If Treg Taylor is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: T

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average3.2%

Polymarket

2.4%

Kalshi+1.7%

4.0%

Difference:1.7%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 2.4¢No 97.7¢

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Dave Bronson)

If Dave Bronson is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition:

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Next Market Closes

58d 1h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

4¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/6DCBSx" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Alaska Governor Election Winner  "></iframe>

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Alaska Governor Election Winner

Alaska Governor Election Winner

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Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Markets (11)

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Bernadette Wilson)

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Treg Taylor)

Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Dave Bronson)

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Discussion

Next Market Closes

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Bernadette Wilson)

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Treg Taylor)

Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Who will win the governorship in Alaska? (Dave Bronson)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Platform Breakdown

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