Alaska Governor Election Winner
PM $1.58M · K 842.6K contracts
2
38
Alaska Governor Election Winner
PM $1.58M · K 842.6K contracts
2
38
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is priced at 79% on Polymarket and 81.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsSame question, fine print differs | 79% | 81.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Bernadette WilsonSame question, fine print differs | 18.5% | 15.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Bill WalkerSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Lesil McGuireSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Tom BegichSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Adam CrumSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Click BishopSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Edna DeVriesSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.58M · K 842.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
38
Saved contracts
14
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Both platforms list contracts on the 2026 Alaska governor race, but their rules differ. The Kalshi event resolves a candidate's contract to Yes "If X is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026," and it may be decided early "after a consensus of media organizations project the winner" [1]. It also states that the market "will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor" [1].
The Polymarket event ties resolution to "the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026" [2]. It names the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC as resolution sources and says the market resolves "once all three sources call the race for the same candidate," otherwise "based on official certification" [2]. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, it resolves to "Other" [2]. The supplied Kalshi excerpt does not describe a fallback outcome, so this comparison cannot be extended beyond the text provided.
Reading the snapshot
The market records were observed at 2026-10-17T06:00:06 UTC and retrieved later that morning. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes. In the sample, Kalshi shows a Yes price of 0.795 for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while Polymarket shows 0.782 for the same candidate [1][2]. Bernadette Wilson is at 0.195 on Kalshi and 0.215 on Polymarket [1][2]. These gaps are small, but the two contracts use different resolution language, so they should not be treated as one comparable price or as an arbitrage signal.
The sample is partial. Kalshi includes 12 of 16 markets in its event, and Polymarket includes 12 of 22 [1][2]. Markets were selected by Yes price within each event, so omitted candidates are not implied to be lower priced. Rankings should not be combined across the two platforms.
Listed end times also differ. Polymarket lists 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [2]. The Kalshi excerpt says its listed end time is "not supplied," although its market records show an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00Z [1]. That date is a platform field, not an announced event date.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, how many traders hold each view, or whether these prices have changed since the snapshot. Volume is not provided as a measure of liquidity, and these prices are not executable quotes. Readers should check each platform's full rules before relying on a contract's wording, since the excerpts are truncated summaries.
References
- Kalshi: Alaska Governor winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
- Polymarket: Alaska Governor Election Winner . Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract family concerns who wins the 2026 Alaska governor election. Two providers list markets on the same question. Kalshi's event, titled "Alaska Governor winner?", resolves to Yes for a named person if that person is elected governor of Alaska pursuant to the 2026 election [1]. Polymarket's event, titled "Alaska Governor Election Winner," resolves according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election, which it says is currently scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2]. The rules differ in how a result is confirmed. Polymarket names the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC as its resolution sources. Its market resolves once all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not call the race for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification. If the results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" [2]. Kalshi says its market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and that it will close early after the first person is sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 election [1]. Kalshi's full rules are not included in the saved excerpt, so the detailed mechanics beyond that excerpt cannot be described here. Each provider lists separate yes or no contracts for individual candidates. The contract dates shown in the saved data are contract-level values and are not announced dates for the election result. Polymarket lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [2], and Kalshi's contracts show an end date in November 2027 [1]. Neither date tells a reader when the winner will be known. The prices are point-in-time snapshots from the saved observation, not executable quotes and not verified probabilities. A higher price on one candidate's contract does not show that the candidate is more likely to win in any verified sense, and prices on different contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity simply because they differ.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's article on the 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election says the election took place on November 6, 2018. It describes an originally three-way race between Walker, Dunleavy, and Begich. Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018 and endorsed Begich, but Dunleavy won, and the article describes that result as the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018 [3]. The same article states that, as of 2026, this was the last time the governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control [3]. This is historical background from that article and does not describe the current 2026 race.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure a forecast-style market on the outcome of one specific race: who is elected governor of Alaska in the 2026 election. The resolution language matters because it determines what counts as a win. Kalshi ties resolution to election in the 2026 gubernatorial election and to media projections for early determination [1]. Polymarket ties resolution to a call by all three named outlets or to official certification, with a fallback to "Other" if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027 [2]. A reader comparing prices should check which rule applies to each contract before treating the prices as comparable.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the winner of these markets be determined?
Under Polymarket's rules, the market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, it resolves based on official certification, and if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, it resolves to "Other" [2]. Kalshi allows accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner [1]. The saved data do not state when any call or certification will occur.
Does a low price mean a candidate has no chance?
No. Prices are snapshots from one observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample is partial. Kalshi's event lists 16 total markets with 12 included, and Polymarket's event lists 22 total with 12 included [1][2]. Candidates outside the included sample are not evidence of a lower price or a zero chance.
Are the two providers' contracts the same?
They cover the same election question but use different resolution language. Kalshi resolves Yes for a person elected governor pursuant to the 2026 election and allows early determination after media projection [1]. Polymarket names three media sources, uses official certification as a fallback, and resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027 [2]. Their prices should be compared with those rules in mind.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
2
Same-question pairs
14
Largest saved gap: 3.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
