GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Name: Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
End: 2026-10-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$44.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Vol

$44.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $44.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $44.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	66%
Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	22%
Will Philippe Brun win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	5%
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	4%
Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	4%
Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	4%
Will Carole Delga win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	2%
Will Jérôme Guedj win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	1%
Will Karim Bouamrane win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

66%

Top Probability

$44.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (57 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. 

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS)"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $44.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $98.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.45)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Philippe Brun win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Karim Bouamrane win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $11.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jérôme Guedj win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $908
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $936
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Carole Delga win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $959
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics