Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Name: Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.99K

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Markets

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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $24.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.99K

100%

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1 market tracked

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$24.99K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (128 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $25.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

127d 15h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)