This prediction market focuses on which political party will secure the third-largest number of seats in Hungary's 2026 parliamentary election, scheduled for April 12. The Hungarian National Assembly, or Országgyűlés, is a 199-seat unicameral legislature elected through a mixed system of party-list proportional representation and single-member constituencies. The market resolves based on official seat counts, not vote shares, and will close to 'Other' if definitive results are not available by October 31, 2026. The outcome for third place is significant because it indicates the strength of opposition forces beyond the dominant Fidesz-KDNP alliance and the main challenger, and can influence coalition dynamics and parliamentary committee assignments. Interest in this market stems from Hungary's position as a European Union member state where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government has frequently clashed with EU institutions over rule-of-law and democratic standards. The 2026 election is viewed as a critical test for Hungary's political direction, with the performance of smaller parties potentially determining the balance of power in a fragmented opposition landscape. Analysts monitor whether a consolidated opposition bloc can challenge Fidesz's supermajority, or if newer, smaller parties will fracture the vote further.

Historical Context

Hungary's current political landscape was shaped by the 2010 parliamentary election, when Fidesz, led by Viktor Orbán, won a two-thirds supermajority. This allowed the party to rewrite the constitution, redraw electoral districts, and implement a new electoral law in 2011. The law reduced the number of parliamentary seats from 386 to 199 and created a mixed system where 106 seats are elected in single-member districts and 93 from national party lists, with a 5% threshold for entry. In the 2014 election, Fidesz-KDNP maintained its supermajority. The opposition was fragmented, with the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finishing second and the far-right Jobbik party third. By the 2018 election, Jobbik had moderated its stance and became the primary opposition, finishing second with 26 seats, while the coalition of MSZP and Dialogue finished third. The 2022 election saw a united opposition alliance, United for Hungary, challenge Fidesz but fail to break its supermajority. Fidesz-KDNP won 135 seats, United for Hungary won 57 seats, and Our Homeland entered parliament with six seats. The historical trend shows a consistent Fidesz victory, with intense competition for second and third places among fragmented opposition and newer parties.

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