$18.42K
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$18.42K
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10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In Jan 2026 If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jan is above X , then the market resolves to Yes. The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."
Prediction markets on Kalshi currently assign a 75% probability to the outcome that there will be more than 25 tornadoes in the United States in January 2026. This price, equivalent to 75 cents per share, indicates a strong consensus that exceeding this threshold is likely. A 75% chance suggests the market views this outcome as the clear favorite, though not a certainty, leaving a significant 25% implied chance for a quieter January.
The elevated odds are primarily driven by climatological patterns and recent historical precedent. January tornado activity is highly variable but often linked to the position of the jet stream and the availability of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. A key factor the market is likely pricing in is the potential influence of an El Niño or La Niña phase. Historical data from the Storm Prediction Center shows that several recent Januaries, including 2023 and 2024, have recorded totals well above 25 tornadoes, with January 2023 seeing over 120 preliminary reports. The market appears to be betting that the climatic drivers for active severe weather seasons will persist.
Furthermore, the market may be accounting for a long-term trend of increased tornado reporting due to better technology and spotter networks, which can inflate preliminary counts compared to historical records. The baseline for what constitutes an "active" January has shifted upward in the modern era.
The primary catalyst for shifting these odds will be the evolving seasonal forecast from agencies like NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center in the latter half of 2025. A forecast signaling a strong, disruptive jet stream pattern with above-average Gulf moisture would solidify high probabilities. Conversely, a forecast leaning toward a dominant cold, stable air mass over the central US would drive prices down.
Specific short-term weather patterns in December 2025 will also influence trading, as they offer the first concrete signals for the following month's pattern. A significant shift in odds is most likely in the final quarter of 2025 as more reliable seasonal outlooks emerge. The market's current high probability also carries risk from quiet Januaries like 2022, which saw only 16 tornadoes, demonstrating the inherent volatility of month-to-month severe weather.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting whether the preliminary number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during January 2026 will exceed a specified threshold, denoted as X. The outcome is determined by meteorological data, specifically the 'Storm Reports Legend' displayed on the 'Preliminary Report Summary' issued by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. This market serves as a quantitative instrument for assessing and speculating on short-term climatological risk and severe weather activity during a historically volatile month. Interest in this topic stems from multiple sectors, including insurance and reinsurance companies that model catastrophic risk, emergency management agencies that allocate preparedness resources, and climate scientists studying potential shifts in seasonal severe weather patterns. Recent years have shown increased variability in January tornado activity, with some seasons experiencing record quiet periods and others witnessing significant, destructive outbreaks. This variability, potentially linked to broader climatic phenomena like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, makes January 2026 a point of significant analytical and financial interest. The market's resolution relies on preliminary reports, which are subject to later quality control and final verification, adding a layer of nuance regarding data accuracy and timeliness.
January tornado activity in the United States exhibits high interannual variability but is concentrated primarily in the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, a region sometimes called 'Dixie Alley.' Historically, January is not the peak month for tornadoes, which typically occurs in April through June. However, significant and deadly outbreaks have occurred. A pivotal event was the Super Outbreak of January 21-22, 1999, which spawned 129 tornadoes across Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi, causing significant destruction and demonstrating the potential for major wintertime tornado events. More recently, January 2023 was exceptionally active with 168 preliminary tornado reports, more than double the 1991-2020 average of 79, and included a significant outbreak on January 12 that produced an EF3 tornado in Alabama. Conversely, January 2024 was relatively quiet with only 39 preliminary tornado reports. This stark contrast between consecutive years highlights the forecasting challenge and the influence of transient, large-scale weather patterns. The long-term climatological record, maintained by the SPC and NOAA, shows no statistically significant trend in January tornado frequency over the past several decades, but there is ongoing scientific debate about potential changes in the seasonal timing and geographic distribution of tornado risk in a warming climate.
The number of tornadoes in a given month has direct and indirect consequences across society. Directly, tornadoes cause loss of life, injury, and extensive property damage, straining local economies and emergency services. An active January can set a costly precedent for the year ahead, influencing annual catastrophe loss projections for the insurance and reinsurance industries. This, in turn, can affect insurance premiums for homeowners and businesses in vulnerable regions. Indirectly, the data point is a valuable indicator for climate science. Anomalously high or low activity in a specific month contributes to the study of how climate variability and change may be affecting the character of severe weather seasons. For government agencies like FEMA and state emergency management offices, early signals of an active severe weather season can influence preparedness messaging and resource allocation before the traditional spring peak. The outcome of this prediction market synthesizes expert and crowd-sourced judgment on these interconnected risks.
As of late 2024, meteorological organizations are beginning to develop seasonal outlooks for the winter of 2025-2026, which will include January 2026. The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be a primary focus for forecasters. A strong El Niño or La Niña phase during the preceding fall can significantly influence the jet stream pattern over North America, thereby affecting the frequency and location of severe weather setups in the subsequent January. The SPC continues to refine its data collection and reporting methodologies, but the core process for generating the Preliminary Report Summary remains unchanged. The market for January 2025 activity will provide the most immediate precedent and data point for analysts looking ahead to 2026.
It is a daily graphical product issued by the SPC that summarizes all preliminary reports of severe weather from the previous 24 hours, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. The tornado count for the market is taken from the legend on this map, which aggregates unverified reports from spotters, the public, and local NWS offices.
Preliminary counts are initial estimates and tend to be higher than the final, verified counts. This is because multiple reports may describe the same tornado, or reports of wind damage may later be classified as straight-line winds rather than a tornado after a National Weather Service damage survey.
The highest frequency of January tornadoes historically occurs in the Southeastern United States, particularly in a region encompassing parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. This is due to the proximity to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which provides moisture and instability even in winter.
Scientific consensus on trends in total tornado frequency is not settled. However, research suggests a potential shift in the timing of tornado season and an increase in the frequency of outbreaks, or days with many tornadoes. This makes monitoring individual months like January important for detecting such shifts.
The preliminary count is the raw number of tornado reports received. The final count is published in the monthly Storm Data publication after thorough investigation by NWS meteorologists, who eliminate duplicate reports and confirm events based on damage surveys or radar data. The market uses the preliminary number.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 71% |
Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 18% |
Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 4% |
Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 4% |
Will there be more than 225 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will there be more than 250 tornadoes in January? | Kalshi | 2% |
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