GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Name: Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
End: 2026-10-28T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$747.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Vol

$747.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $747.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $747.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Poly	64%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Poly	33%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Poly	1%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Poly	0%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

64%

Top Probability

$747.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 28, 2026 (54 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Ope"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $703.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $139.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $250.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $62.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $43.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $28.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $319.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy