$4.12K
1
8
$4.12K
1
8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Wuthering Heights If Wuthering Heights has a Tomatometer score of above X on Feb 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The "Fresh!" and "Certified Fresh!" subtitles are meant for illustrative purposes only. The Tomatometer score must be above the strike value to resolve as YES, for example, a score of 75 would resolve "Above 75" as No., The market will be determined the Monday after wide release at 10:00 AM ET.
Prediction markets currently assign an 83% probability that the upcoming "Wuthering Heights" adaptation will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score above 45. This high confidence level indicates traders view a score exceeding this low threshold as very likely, though not absolutely guaranteed. With the leading "Above 45" contract trading at 83 cents, the implied probability for a score falling at 45 or below is just 17%. This pricing suggests the consensus expects the film to be received at least neutrally by critics, avoiding a deeply negative critical panning.
The high probability is primarily driven by the project's prestigious source material and involved talent. Emily Brontë's 1847 gothic novel is a classic, frequently adapted with a built-in critical respect that often shields such projects from the very lowest scores. Furthermore, the involvement of a director like Emma Mackey, who is attached to star, brings a contemporary artistic credibility that markets are factoring in. Secondly, the specific threshold of 45 is historically a very low bar for a literary period drama. Most comparable adaptations clear this score easily, barring catastrophic production issues, making a "Yes" outcome the default assumption. The thin $4K trading volume, however, cautions that this is not a deeply liquid or heavily debated market.
The primary factor that could lower these odds is the emergence of negative pre-release buzz, such as poor test screenings or reports of significant production troubles ahead of its release. A high-profile film festival debut, likely in late 2025 or early 2026, will serve as the first major catalyst for a concrete critical response and could dramatically shift the market. If early reviews from festivals like Venice or Toronto are surprisingly harsh, the probability could fall significantly. Conversely, a rapturous festival reception could push the market toward near-certainty for a score well above 45, with attention shifting to markets for higher thresholds like "Above 75." The resolution date, the Monday after wide release in February 2026, means all critical reviews published by that point will determine the final Tomatometer score.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the critical reception of a forthcoming film adaptation of Emily Brontë's classic 1847 novel 'Wuthering Heights,' as measured by the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score. The market specifically resolves based on whether the film's aggregated critic score exceeds a predetermined threshold on February 16, 2026. Rotten Tomatoes, a leading review aggregation website, calculates the Tomatometer by classifying professional reviews as either 'Fresh' (positive) or 'Rotten' (negative), with a score representing the percentage of positive reviews. This market allows participants to speculate on the critical success of a new interpretation of one of literature's most enduring and frequently adapted stories. The interest stems from the novel's complex legacy, the challenges of adapting its dark romanticism for modern audiences, and the track record of the creative team involved. Recent years have seen a resurgence of period dramas and literary adaptations, making the critical and commercial performance of such projects a significant indicator of audience tastes and industry trends. The outcome will be determined on the Monday following the film's wide theatrical release, providing a clear, data-driven resolution based on published critical consensus.
Emily Brontë's 'Wuthering Heights' has a long and varied history of screen adaptation, beginning with a 1939 film directed by William Wyler starring Laurence Olivier and Merle Oberon. That version, while a classic, significantly softened the novel's darker edges. Subsequent adaptations have grappled with the source material's complexity, with critical reception fluctuating widely. A notable 1992 version starring Juliette Binoche and Ralph Fiennes holds a 64% Tomatometer score, indicating mixed reviews. A 2009 television adaptation fared better with critics. The most critically acclaimed modern interpretation is the 2011 film directed by Andrea Arnold, which earned a robust 79% Tomatometer score and was praised for its raw, visceral approach. This historical precedent shows that while the story is perennially attractive, achieving widespread critical acclaim is not guaranteed and often depends on the director's unique vision. The project's announcement in late 2024, with Frances O'Connor attached, follows her successful film 'Emily,' creating a narrative of a filmmaker returning to the Brontë world with greater authority.
The critical reception of a major literary adaptation like 'Wuthering Heights' matters significantly within the film industry ecosystem. A high Tomatometer score, especially a 'Certified Fresh' designation, functions as a powerful marketing tool, driving audience interest and potentially boosting box office performance in the crucial opening weeks. For the filmmakers and studio, strong reviews validate creative choices and can enhance career capital for the director and cast. Beyond commerce, the critical response serves as a cultural barometer. It reflects how contemporary critics and audiences receive a 19th-century story of obsessive love, class conflict, and moral ambiguity. A positive reception could signal an enduring relevance for Gothic romance, while a negative one might suggest a disconnect or failed reinterpretation. The outcome influences future greenlighting decisions for similar period projects and contributes to the ongoing cultural conversation about how classic literature is reinvented for new generations.
As of late 2024, the new 'Wuthering Heights' adaptation is in active development with Frances O'Connor confirmed as director and screenwriter. Working Title Films is producing, with Universal Pictures expected to handle distribution. Casting announcements are anticipated in early 2025, which will be a significant next step in shaping critical and public anticipation. Principal photography is slated to begin in mid-2025, targeting a release in late 2025 or early 2026 to meet the prediction market's resolution date of February 16, 2026. The project is currently in the pre-production phase, with O'Connor refining the script and the production team scouting locations.
The Tomatometer score is a percentage representing the proportion of positive professional critic reviews for a film or TV show on the Rotten Tomatoes website. A review is classified as 'Fresh' (positive) or 'Rotten' (negative) to calculate this aggregate score.
There have been numerous adaptations, including over 15 major film and television versions since the first in 1939. Notable ones include the 1939 classic, a 1992 film, a 2009 TV series, and the critically acclaimed 2011 film by Andrea Arnold.
The new adaptation is being directed and written by Frances O'Connor, an actress and filmmaker known for her 2022 directorial debut 'Emily,' a film about the life of author Emily Brontë which received strong critical reviews.
A 'Certified Fresh' rating is a special designation given to movies or TV shows that meet specific criteria, including a consistent Tomatometer score of 75% or higher and a minimum number of critic reviews, with at least five from Top Critics. It signifies sustained critical acclaim.
While an official date is not yet announced, production timelines suggest a target release in late 2025 or early 2026. The prediction market resolves based on the Tomatometer score on February 16, 2026, indicating an expected release shortly before that date.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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8 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 45) | Kalshi | 83% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 60) | Kalshi | 62% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 65) | Kalshi | 50% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 70) | Kalshi | 39% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 75) | Kalshi | 29% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 80) | Kalshi | 19% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 85) | Kalshi | 11% |
Wuthering Heights Rotten Tomatoes score? (Above 90) | Kalshi | 7% |
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