Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

Name: Bank of Japan Decision in December?
End: 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.28K

Events

Markets

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Bank of Japan Decision in December?

Vol

$13.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	67%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	31%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	3%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$13.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bank of Japan Decision in December?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 18, 2026 (68 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.98)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $974
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld