The 2025 Honduran general election, scheduled for November 30, 2025, will be a critical test for the country's democracy following the historic 2021 election of President Xiomara Castro, the nation's first female leader. This prediction market focuses specifically on voter turnout, measured as the percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots. Turnout is a key indicator of political engagement, institutional trust, and the perceived legitimacy of electoral outcomes in a nation with a complex history of political instability and low participation rates. The election will determine the presidency, all 128 seats in the National Congress, and 298 municipal governments, making it a comprehensive political event. Interest in turnout stems from its potential to signal public confidence in Castro's administration, which has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms and economic revitalization, and from concerns about voter apathy, security challenges, and the influence of organized crime on electoral participation. Analysts are watching to see if Castro's government can mobilize the electorate that brought her to power or if disillusionment will lead to decreased engagement.

Historical Context

Voter turnout in Honduras has been historically volatile and often low, reflecting deep-seated issues of political trust and social exclusion. In the 2013 election, following the 2009 coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya (Xiomara Castro's husband), turnout was approximately 61.2%. The contentious 2017 election, marred by allegations of fraud and post-election violence, saw a reported turnout of around 57.5%, though these figures were disputed. The 2021 election marked a significant shift, with turnout rising to an estimated 68.5%, driven by high mobilization for Castro's candidacy and widespread desire for change after 12 years of National Party rule. This historical pattern shows turnout is sensitive to political crises, the competitiveness of races, and the presence of compelling alternatives to the status quo. The 2025 election will occur in the shadow of this recent high-water mark, testing whether increased participation represents a new norm or a temporary phenomenon tied to Castro's initial candidacy.

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