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| Market | Platform | Price |
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Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on revoking, terminating, or rescinding the suspension of entry for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal before the World Cup? | Kalshi | 25% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before June 11, 2026 If Donald Trump has taken any executive action revoking, terminating, or rescinding the suspension of entry for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal before the World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the to
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to this event, with Kalshi pricing a "Yes" outcome at approximately 25 cents, implying a 25% chance. This suggests traders view the lifting of these specific travel bans before the 2026 World Cup as unlikely, though not impossible. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with only about $1,000 in total volume, indicating limited trader confidence and a nascent consensus.
Two primary factors are suppressing the probability. First, the political landscape surrounding immigration policy is highly polarized. The travel restrictions in question, initially implemented via presidential proclamation, are a core component of the prior administration's agenda. A second-term President Trump would likely prioritize other immigration actions, such as border security measures, before revisiting the complex, country-specific bans for World Cup-related reasons.
Second, the condition requires a specific, personal executive action from the president explicitly addressing these four nations. The narrow scope reduces the likelihood of a tangential policy change triggering the market. Historical precedent shows that immigration executive orders are often broad, making a targeted action for this subset of countries, driven primarily by a sporting event, a lower policy priority.
The odds could shift with explicit political signaling. If the Trump campaign or transition team were to publicly commit to reviewing these bans to facilitate World Cup participation, the probability would rise significantly. Conversely, reaffirmation of the existing restrictions would push the "No" probability higher.
A key catalyst will be the posture of FIFA and U.S. organizing committees post-election. Intense diplomatic or logistical pressure from these bodies highlighting operational conflicts between the bans and hosting requirements could force the issue onto the executive agenda. The market's resolution date of June 11, 2026, provides a long timeline, but meaningful movement will likely depend on policy statements in late 2024 or 2025 following the presidential inauguration.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether former President Donald Trump, if re-elected, would lift specific travel restrictions affecting four countries whose national soccer teams will participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if, before June 11, 2026, President Trump signs an executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding that explicitly revokes, terminates, or rescinds the suspension of entry for nationals from Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal. The 2026 World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, presents a unique geopolitical and logistical challenge given existing U.S. immigration policies. The topic sits at the intersection of international sports diplomacy, immigration policy, and executive power, with significant implications for athletes, officials, and fans from the affected nations. Interest stems from the potential conflict between strict immigration enforcement and the global cooperative spirit required to host a major international sporting event. The outcome hinges on the political priorities of a potential second Trump administration and its willingness to make exceptions for World Cup participants.
The modern framework for this issue began on January 27, 2017, when President Trump signed Executive Order 13769, 'Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States,' commonly known as the 'Muslim Ban' or 'Travel Ban.' This order suspended entry for nationals from seven Muslim-majority countries, including Iran. It faced immediate legal challenges and protests. A revised version, Presidential Proclamation 9645, was issued on September 24, 2017, after a Supreme Court ruling allowed a limited version to take effect. This proclamation established a more detailed framework for restricting entry based on inadequate information-sharing and security standards. The list of countries evolved through subsequent proclamations. For instance, Presidential Proclamation 9983 in January 2020 added Nigeria, Eritrea, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, Sudan, and Tanzania to the restrictions, though with varying scopes. Notably, Chad was removed from the list in 2018 after improving its information-sharing practices, establishing a precedent for countries to be delisted. The Biden administration revoked Proclamation 9945 on his first day in office, January 20, 2021, via Proclamation 10141. However, the underlying legal authority under Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act remains, allowing a future president to reinstate similar restrictions, which is a core premise of this prediction market.
The resolution of this issue carries significant implications for international relations and the perception of the United States on the global stage. Granting exceptions or revoking bans for World Cup participants would be seen as a diplomatic goodwill gesture, potentially improving bilateral relations with countries like Iran and Senegal. Conversely, maintaining restrictions could lead to boycotts, protests, and a deeply politicized tournament, damaging the event's spirit and the U.S.'s reputation as a host. Economically, travel bans affect not just athletes but also thousands of fans, officials, and media personnel. Restricted travel could lead to reduced tourism revenue for host cities and dampen the economic impact of the World Cup, which is estimated to be in the billions of dollars. For the affected diaspora communities in the U.S., the ability for family and friends to attend matches is a deeply personal matter, turning immigration policy into a poignant social issue. The decision will also set a precedent for how the U.S. balances national security priorities with its commitments as a host of major global events.
As of late 2024, no version of the Trump-era travel ban is in effect. President Biden's Proclamation 10141, issued in January 2021, revoked the suspensions on entry for nationals from the previously listed countries. However, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will determine the policy landscape leading up to the World Cup. Former President Trump, the Republican nominee, has pledged to reinstate and expand travel bans if re-elected. The specific mechanism and target countries for any new order remain undefined. FIFA and the host committees are in ongoing planning phases, with visa and entry protocols a known agenda item, but no public assurances or special agreements have been announced regarding exemptions for players or fans from currently unrestricted nations.
The term refers to a series of executive actions beginning in 2017 that suspended the entry of foreign nationals from several, predominantly Muslim-majority, countries. The policy was justified on national security grounds and underwent several revisions due to legal challenges before being revoked by President Biden in 2021.
Yes, under Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, the president has broad authority to suspend the entry of 'any class of aliens' deemed detrimental to U.S. interests. This is the legal foundation used for the travel ban proclamations and would be the same authority used to revoke them.
Yes, historically, the U.S. has streamlined visa processes for events like the Olympics. For example, prior to the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games, Congress passed the Olympic and Paralympic Act to facilitate athlete and official visas, setting a potential precedent for the 2026 World Cup.
This would create a major crisis for FIFA and the hosts. In extreme scenarios, matches could be relocated to other host countries (Canada or Mexico), teams could be disqualified, or FIFA could threaten to strip the U.S. of hosting rights, though all these outcomes are considered highly unlikely given the advanced planning involved.
No. As of late 2024, following President Biden's revocation, there are no blanket entry suspensions for nationals of these countries. They may apply for visas through standard procedures, though approval is not guaranteed and rates vary by nation.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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