This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Gold (GC) above ___ end of June?

Name: Gold (GC) above ___ end of June?
End: 2026-06-30T17:30:00.000Z

Total Volume

$67.97K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Gold (GC) above ___ end of June?

Vol

$67.97K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $67.97K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $67.97K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	63%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	47%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	33%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	27%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	16%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $8,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$67.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gold (GC) above ___ end of June?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME'"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $68.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $80.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.85)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gold (GC) settle over $8,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $22.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance