Bitcoin all time high by ___?
PM $10.51M
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1
Bitcoin all time high by ___?
PM $10.51M
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 5.3%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 20265.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.51M
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in the window described in its rules. According to the rules, it "will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date" [1]. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets" [1].
The title refers to December 31, 2026, but the rule text quoted above names a different start date. A reader should rely on the full rule text, not the title alone. The listed end time is "2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z" [1]. That timestamp is the contract's closing time, not a resolution result or an announced event.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market shows a "Yes" price of 0.043 and a "No" price of 0.957 [1]. The provider observation time was 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:17:16.042Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier observation only. They are not live quotes, not executable prices, and not verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the coverage record reports that this market was included with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this event has a single binary contract, no other outcome comparison is available here.
Volume and open interest are not included in this excerpt, so nothing can be said about liquidity or the number of traders. The snapshot does not explain why the price is at its observed level.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the price after the observation time. It also does not show the current market state, any recent Bitcoin price data, or whether any candle has already met the rule conditions. The date mismatch between the title and the quoted window should be checked against the complete rules on the source page before drawing conclusions. Comparing this contract with similar Bitcoin contracts on other platforms would require checking each one's wording, resolution source, and listed close time, since differences in those fields can change what is being priced.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin all time high by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Polymarket contract, titled "Bitcoin all time high by ___?", asks whether Bitcoin will set a new all-time high on Binance within a specified window. The saved contract rules say it resolves "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT, during the window on the date specified in the title, has a final High price higher than the High of any earlier Binance 1 minute candle on any prior date. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The rules name Binance as the resolution source and specify the BTC/USDT High prices shown on Binance's 1 minute candle view. They also state that the market concerns Binance BTC/USDT prices, not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. The rules list an end time of 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC, and the saved provider status is active [1]. The date and time window in the rules govern how the contract resolves, and they do not indicate that any event is scheduled. The contract's saved snapshot shows the Yes outcome at 0.043 and the No outcome at 0.957 for the market titled "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?" [1]. These figures are a single observed snapshot from the provider's data at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The volume and number of participants behind them are not part of this record. Because the rules tie resolution to one exchange's candle data, the contract measures a narrow question: whether Binance's recorded BTC/USDT highs exceed prior Binance highs within the stated window. It does not measure whether Bitcoin reaches a high on any other platform. Traders can therefore be pricing the Binance-specific rule, the timing window, and the wording of the title together.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's Bitcoin article states that Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency, that it was invented in 2008, and that use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009 with the release of its open-source implementation [2]. The same article notes that from 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender before revoking it [2]. The history article says Bitcoin was originally designed as a medium of exchange and is now primarily regarded as a store of value, and that from the mid-2010s some businesses began accepting it alongside traditional currencies [3]. These sources are background and do not describe the contract's current pricing or Bitcoin's present market level.
Why It Matters
The contract converts a question about Bitcoin's price history into a yes or no outcome tied to specific exchange data. Its rules depend on three things: the Binance BTC/USDT 1 minute High prices, the time window stated in the rules, and the comparison against all earlier highs on prior dates [1]. Because the outcome depends on a particular exchange's candles, the contract's result would follow that exchange's recorded data and not an aggregated market index [1]. Readers should check the full rules, including the window and the candle definition, before interpreting the saved price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually measure?
It measures whether any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT within the rule's time window, on the date in the title, has a final High above every earlier Binance 1 minute High on prior dates [1]. If one does, the contract resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The rules name Binance as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not count for this market [1].
Does the saved price mean there is a 4.3 percent chance of a new high?
No. The saved Yes price of 0.043 is a snapshot from the provider's data and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1]. It reflects one observation at one time.
What is the end time of the contract?
The listed end time in the saved provider data is 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC [1]. This is a date from the contract rules and does not indicate an announced event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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