Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Manila on October 14?

Name: Highest temperature in Manila on October 14?
End: 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.33K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Manila on October 14?

Vol

$1.33K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.33K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.33K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 14?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 14?	Poly	43%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 14?	Poly	34%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 14?	Poly	11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 14?	Poly	7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 14?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 14?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on October 14?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on October 14?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on October 14?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on October 14?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on October 14?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$1.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Manila on October 14?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 14, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $78.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $348
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $75
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $132
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $172
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $74
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate