Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 13, 2026?

Name: How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 13, 2026?
End: 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$0.00

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Trade on Polymarket

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 13, 2026?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	90%
Will 5-6 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will 1-2 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	49%
Will no states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	49%
Will 3-4 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	27%
Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending T

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 13, 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 15, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending T

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count rang"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $57
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will no states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 1-2 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 3-4 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 5-6 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate