This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Name: Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$28.05K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Vol

$28.05K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.05K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.05K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$28.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (140 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immedi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $28.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $28.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics