Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
PM $1.05M · K 451.6K contracts
5
15
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
PM $1.05M · K 451.6K contracts
5
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 32.5% on Polymarket, and the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 87.5%.
Polymarket
- Yes32.5%
Kalshi
- Before Jan 1, 202987.5%
- Before Jul 1, 202882%
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Oct 1, 202771.5%
- Before Jul 1, 202768.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.05M · K 451.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Before Apr 2026 If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether Pete Hegseth will leave the Secretary of Defense role before a stated date. Each contract resolves to Yes if he "leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria" [1]. The criteria require "an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period" [1]. They also state that "Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving" unless the person "formally and permanently ceases to hold the position" [1]. If he leaves and later returns, "the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role" [1].
Death while in office is handled differently: "all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange" [1]. Because the rules cover several departure types, a reader should check each clause rather than assume the title alone defines the outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-18T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 07:27:06Z [1]. It describes market prices at those times only, not live quotes. The sample includes nine Kalshi contracts with different deadlines, and all nine are listed in the coverage data [1].
Across this sample, the Yes price rises with the later deadline. The contract ending November 1, 2026 shows Yes at 0.035, while the contract ending January 1, 2029 shows Yes at 0.845 [1]. These are quoted prices in the snapshot, not verified probabilities or executable prices.
The listed end dates also differ from the titles. For example, the January 1, 2029 contract lists an end date of 2029-01-08T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The provider's listed end time for the event is not supplied, so the exact close timing for each contract should be checked on the platform. The event header also reads "Before Apr 2026" [1], which does not match the later deadlines in the contract titles. Readers should rely on each contract's own title and rules.
What remains uncertain
This evidence comes from one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The sample is complete for this Kalshi event, but the source states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume and trader activity are not included in the supplied data, so no conclusions about liquidity or participation can be drawn. The evidence also gives no reason for any price movement and no recent news. Current officeholder status and any upcoming dates beyond the listed contract deadlines are outside this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
Pete Hegseth's role as Secretary of Defense is the subject of a prediction market that asks whether he will leave the position before a set deadline. The provider's contract rules define "out" narrowly. The Yes outcome requires that Hegseth have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period [1]. Under those rules, a temporary leave of absence, suspension, or recusal does not count as leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position [1]. The rules count several kinds of departure. Resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, recall, and expiration of a term without renewal all qualify, whether the departure is voluntary or involuntary [1]. If Hegseth leaves and later returns to the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role [1]. The rules also address death in office: if he dies while holding the role, contracts on him may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange [1]. The market closes and expires early if he leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria [1]. The saved event contains several contracts with different deadlines, each asking the same underlying question before a different date [1]. Readers should read each contract's own deadline, since the event header text and the individual market titles use different date labels.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's biographical summary states that Hegseth has been serving as the 29th United States secretary of defense since 2025 [2]. A separate article on his tenure gives the same starting year [3]. The supplied material does not describe the events of his appointment or any earlier positions in detail, so this section is limited to the start year.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Hegseth leaves the office of Secretary of Defense before a stated deadline under the provider's payout criteria [1]. Because the rules count involuntary removal and expiration of a term as well as resignation, the contract is not limited to a voluntary exit [1]. The exclusion of temporary leaves and suspensions also means that a period of absence alone would not resolve the contract under the stated rules [1]. Prices for these contracts are snapshots taken at the time the provider data was observed [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities of departure. Each contract has its own deadline, so prices across deadlines reflect different questions and should not be treated as a single ranking of outcomes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a temporary leave of absence count as leaving the role?
No. The provider's rules state that temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position [1].
What types of departure would resolve the Yes outcome?
The rules include resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role, whether voluntary or involuntary [1].
What happens if Hegseth dies while holding the role?
The provider's rules say that if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange [1].
What happens if he leaves and later returns to the role?
The contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role rather than on the later return [1].
Do the saved prices show the chance that he will leave?
The saved prices are snapshots from the provider data and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
