Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

Name: Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.07K

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Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $1.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.07K

100%

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1 market tracked

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$1.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Lai Ching-te, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". President Lai Ching-te will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Taiwan within this market's timeframe. The primary res

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Lai Ching-te, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President  Lai Ching-te will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Taiwan within this market's timeframe.

The primary res

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Lai Ching-te, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President  Lai Ching-te will be considered"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $842
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

348d 11h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/6jCYax" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?"></iframe>

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Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

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Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)