Name: Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
End: 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $26.16M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $26.16M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

30 markets tracked

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(30)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?	Poly	91%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?	Poly	2%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?	Poly	1%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?	Poly	1%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?	Poly	0%
Will there be no coalition by October 31?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?	Poly	0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$26.16M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolv

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (289 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolv

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $26.16M
* **Total Liquidity:** $613.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 42.66)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $60.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $194.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $715.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $841.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $911.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $770.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $1.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $1.10M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $665.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $459.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $51.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $1.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $225.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $762.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $203.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $775.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $298.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $240.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $3.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the next Dutch government be another combination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $284.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $178.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $864.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $1.83M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $5.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $469.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $610.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $393.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $457.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $33.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will there be no coalition by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $840.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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