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What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

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What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

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Polymarket

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21 markets tracked

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will Gonzalo be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will Hanna be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Wilfred be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Vicky be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Teddy be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Sally be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Rene be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Paulette be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Omar be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Nana be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Marco be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Leah be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Kyle be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Josephine be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Arthur be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Atlantic in 2026 If a storm named X is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No. This market will close and expire early if the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Atlantic in 2026

If a storm named X is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No. This market will close and expire early if the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a storm named Wilfred is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wilfred be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Vicky be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Teddy be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Sally be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rene be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Paulette be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Omar be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Nana be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Marco be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Leah be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Kyle be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Josephine be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Hanna be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Gonzalo be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Arthur be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

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Markets21

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KALSHI

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

If a storm named Bertha is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and D

KALSHI

Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

If a storm named Cristobal is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 an

KALSHI

Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

If a storm named Dolly is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and De

KALSHI

Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

If a storm named Edouard is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and

KALSHI

Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

If a storm named Fay is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and Dece

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What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

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Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

Markets (21)

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

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