GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

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Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

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5 markets tracked

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	53%
Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	43%
Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	11%
Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	4%
Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%

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53%

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About This Event

On Aug 18, 2026 If X finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Y gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order, runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place, For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Aug 18, 2026

If X finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Y gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order, runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place, For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Paul Renner finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

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Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

If Jay Collins finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For

KALSHI

Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

If James Fishback finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked c

KALSHI

Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

If Paul Renner finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For

KALSHI

Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

If Byron Donalds finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked ch

KALSHI

Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

If Casey DeSantis finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage F

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/6lt1kO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place"></iframe>

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Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

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Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Markets (5)

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

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Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Paul Renner finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?

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