
$1.95K
1
15

$1.95K
1
15
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The prediction market currently assigns a low probability of approximately 14% that "End of Beginning" by Djo will be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart. This price indicates the market views this outcome as very unlikely. For context, a 14% chance suggests traders see roughly a 1-in-7 possibility, a speculative bet against the prevailing trend of chart dominance by newer releases.
Two primary factors are suppressing the odds. First, the song's temporal disadvantage: "End of Beginning," released in 2022, is an older track competing in a 2026 year-end chart. Spotify's annual lists are overwhelmingly dominated by songs released in that same calendar year or the immediate prior year, making a four-year-old song a historical outlier. Second, the track's streaming profile, while strong with over 700 million global streams to date, is driven by a sustained viral trend on TikTok rather than contemporary radio or new album momentum. This pattern often leads to a gradual decline in daily streams over time, making a resurgence to a #2 peak in 2026 a significant challenge.
The odds could increase if the song experiences a major, new cultural resurgence. This would likely require a fresh viral wave on TikTok or Reels, a prominent sync in a major film or TV series in 2025 or 2026, or a live performance that catapults it back into the mainstream conversation. Conversely, the odds could fall further towards zero if streaming data throughout 2025 shows its daily play count stabilizing at a level far below current top hits. The thin market volume of around $2K means new information or trading interest could cause significant price volatility. Monitoring the song's position on Spotify's daily and weekly U.S. charts in late 2025 will be the key indicator for any shift in this market's assessment.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on identifying which song will rank as the second most-streamed track on Spotify's U.S. platform in 2026, as determined by the annual Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart. Spotify Wrapped is a highly anticipated year-end campaign where Spotify reveals personalized and aggregated listening statistics for its users, with the Top 10 Songs USA chart being a definitive ranking of the most popular tracks in the country based on total streams. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined song (represented by 'X') achieves this #2 position on the official chart release date for 2026. The topic sits at the intersection of music industry forecasting, streaming economics, and pop culture trends, engaging participants in predicting musical success nearly two years in advance. Interest stems from Spotify's dominant role as the world's largest music streaming service, with over 100 million users in the United States alone, making its charts a key barometer of mainstream popularity. Predicting the runner-up spot is particularly intriguing as it often involves analyzing the dynamics between an undeniable chart-topper and a cluster of highly competitive hits. Recent developments include the increasing influence of viral trends on TikTok and other social platforms on Spotify streaming numbers, the continued dominance of a handful of superstar artists, and the unpredictable breakout of songs from film soundtracks or television shows. This market attracts music analysts, industry professionals, and fans who follow streaming data, offering a quantified speculation on the future of popular music consumption.
The concept of year-end music charts dates back decades, with publications like Billboard compiling annual rankings based on sales and radio play. The digital revolution, however, fundamentally changed the metrics. Spotify, launched in 2008, began its annual Wrapped campaign in 2016, providing personalized data summaries for users. By 2020, Spotify Wrapped had evolved into a major cultural event, with the platform releasing global and country-specific top songs and artist lists. These lists are based purely on total streams from January 1 to October 31 of the given year, with a cutoff to allow for year-end production. Historically, the #1 song on the U.S. Wrapped list has often been a record-breaking megahit, such as Drake's 'God's Plan' in 2018 or The Weeknd's 'Blinding Lights' in 2020. The #2 position has frequently been a song that enjoyed massive, sustained popularity but was ultimately surpassed by a cultural juggernaut. For example, in the 2023 U.S. Wrapped, Morgan Wallen's 'Last Night' was #1, while SZA's 'Kill Bill' secured #2. This demonstrates how the #2 spot can represent either the strongest challenger to the top hit or a song with remarkably consistent streaming across the entire year. The predictability of these charts has decreased in recent years due to the rise of viral, platform-driven hits from TikTok, which can create unexpected surges for songs months after their initial release.
The ranking of the #2 song on Spotify's U.S. chart is a significant indicator of economic and cultural trends within the music industry. Economically, a top placement translates directly to substantial royalty payments for artists, songwriters, producers, and their record labels, often amounting to millions of dollars. It signals which artists and genres are most commercially viable, influencing label investment decisions, touring strategies, and brand partnership opportunities for the following year. Culturally, securing a spot this high on the Wrapped list signifies a song's deep penetration into the daily lives of millions of Americans, reflecting the nation's collective mood, social trends, and pop culture moments from that year. It matters to advertisers seeking soundtracks for campaigns, to film and TV music supervisors looking for relevant hits, and to historians documenting the era's auditory landscape. For the artists involved, it provides a permanent, data-backed claim to a defining hit of the year, cementing their legacy and boosting their credibility for future projects. The prediction market itself matters as a collective intelligence tool, aggregating diverse opinions on future cultural trends into a tradable forecast, offering insights that may differ from traditional industry prognostication.
As of late 2024, the music industry is analyzing the 2024 Spotify Wrapped data to understand current trends that may extend into 2026. Hip-hop, pop, and country continue to be dominant genres on the U.S. charts. The influence of TikTok remains potent but is being met with more strategic marketing from labels to engineer or capitalize on viral moments. Major artists like Taylor Swift, Drake, and Bad Bunny maintain their status as streaming superpowers, but breakout hits from newer artists or unexpected sources (like film soundtracks) remain a constant possibility. The cutoff for 2026 Wrapped eligibility will be October 31, 2026, giving songs released in late 2025 and throughout 2026 a chance to accumulate streams. Prediction market participants are currently evaluating upcoming album release schedules, emerging artists, and genre trends to identify potential contenders for the 2026 #2 position.
Spotify's Wrapped Top Songs chart is based on the total number of streams a song accumulates on the platform within a specific region, like the United States, during the eligibility period. This period typically runs from January 1 to October 31 of the chart year. Only original streams are counted; user-generated playlists and algorithmic plays are included, but excessive artificial looping is filtered out.
For the 2023 Spotify Wrapped USA chart, the #2 most-streamed song was 'Kill Bill' by SZA. The #1 song was 'Last Night' by Morgan Wallen. This demonstrates the diversity of genres that can reach the top, with SZA's R&B/pop track finishing just behind a country hit.
Yes, it is possible but historically less common for the very top spots. A older song can chart if it experiences a massive resurgence in streams due to a viral trend on TikTok, a sync in a popular film or show, or a major cultural moment. However, the #1 and #2 positions are typically occupied by songs released in that chart year or the very end of the previous year.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
15 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will End of Beginning be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will The Fate of Ophelia be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will Golden be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Ordinary be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Your Idol be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will back to friends be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Soda Pop be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Manchild be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will luther (with sza) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will DtMF be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Die With A Smile be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will APT. be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/6oTKYD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="#2 Song on Spotify U.S. in 2026?"></iframe>