
$12.64K
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16

$12.64K
1
16
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In 2026 If X is the #1 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns which musical recording will achieve the highest number of streams on the Spotify platform in the United States during the 2026 calendar year, as officially recognized by the Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart. Spotify Wrapped is an annual year-end campaign where the streaming service releases personalized and aggregated data summaries for its users, including definitive charts of the most-streamed songs and artists in various countries. The resolution of this market depends on the official chart released by Spotify, typically in early December, which serves as the authoritative record of streaming performance for that year. Predicting the top song involves analyzing current musical trends, artist trajectories, marketing strategies, and the evolving consumption patterns of over 100 million U.S. Spotify users. Interest in this topic stems from its reflection of cultural dominance, the significant economic value attached to being the year's most-streamed track, and its use as a barometer for the music industry's commercial and creative direction. The outcome has implications for record labels, streaming royalties, and an artist's career momentum, making it a focal point for industry analysts, fans, and investors alike.
The concept of a definitive 'song of the year' has evolved from radio airplay and physical sales charts to being dominated by streaming data in the 2010s. Spotify, launched in the U.S. in 2011, began its annual Wrapped campaign in 2016, providing a transparent, data-driven snapshot of yearly listening habits. The first song to top the U.S. Wrapped chart was Drake's 'One Dance' in 2016, highlighting the early dominance of hip-hop and global pop on streaming platforms. In subsequent years, the top spot has been claimed by mega-hits like Ed Sheeran's 'Shape of You' (2017), Drake's 'God's Plan' (2018), and Post Malone's 'Sunflower' (2019). The 2020s have seen increased competition, with The Weeknd's 'Blinding Lights' winning in 2020 and Olivia Rodrigo's 'drivers license' topping the 2021 chart, signaling the rise of younger pop stars. A key precedent is the longevity of certain tracks. 'Blinding Lights' remained a top streamer for years after its release, demonstrating that a song released late in the prior year can dominate the following year's chart, a factor crucial for 2026 predictions. The historical data shows a trend where the winner is often a song released in the fourth quarter of the previous year or the first quarter of the chart year, benefiting from a full 12 months of availability.
Determining the top streamed song of the year carries substantial economic and cultural weight. For the music industry, it represents the pinnacle of streaming-era success, influencing royalty payouts, contract negotiations, and brand partnership values for the winning artist and label. The song generates millions of dollars in streaming revenue and often leads to increased sales, touring demand, and media visibility, creating a financial halo effect. Culturally, the top song serves as a timestamp for the year's collective mood and trends, studied by sociologists and marketers alike. It reflects what resonated with the American public, often blending with moments in film, television, and social media. The competition also highlights the power dynamics of the streaming economy, where platform playlists and algorithms can make or break a song's reach, raising ongoing debates about artistic merit versus algorithmic promotion in the digital age.
As of late 2024, the landscape is highly competitive. Major artists like Taylor Swift, Drake, and Bad Bunny are expected to release new albums in 2025-2026, which will produce the leading contenders for the 2026 chart. The influence of TikTok on breaking new hits remains stronger than ever, with labels actively engineering songs for viral potential. Spotify continues to refine its recommendation algorithms and expand its user base, which may slightly alter consumption patterns. Industry analysts are closely watching the rise of specific genres, like country music's increased streaming share, and the potential for an artist from that genre to challenge for the top spot if they achieve cross-over appeal.
Spotify Wrapped, including the official Top Songs chart, is typically released in the first week of December each year. For 2026, the chart and associated data will likely be published in early December 2026, summarizing listening activity from January 1 to approximately October 31 of that year.
Spotify counts a 'stream' when a user intentionally plays a track for more than 30 seconds. The Wrapped chart aggregates these valid streams from all Spotify users in the United States over the defined chart year. Streams from radio-style features or automated play may have different weighting.
Yes, absolutely. The chart measures streams within the 2026 calendar year regardless of release date. A major hit released in November or December 2025 can accumulate the vast majority of its streams throughout the following year, making it a strong contender for the top spot in 2026, as seen with previous hits like 'All I Want for Christmas Is You'.
The Daily Top Songs chart is a real-time ranking of the most-streamed tracks in a country on that specific day. The annual Wrapped chart is a cumulative total of all streams from January 1 through late October of that year. A song can dominate daily charts without winning the annual title if it lacks longevity.
Yes, according to Spotify's official methodology, streams generated in private listening sessions and from downloaded music played offline are counted toward the total streams for an artist or song, provided the device syncs with Spotify's servers, meaning they contribute to Wrapped chart data.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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16 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will The Fate of Ophelia be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will End of Beginning be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Golden be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Die With A Smile be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Ordinary be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Man I Need be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Soda Pop be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will luther (with sza) be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will APT. be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Your Idol be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Manchild be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will back to friends be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
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