$783.35K
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$783.35K
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5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by Decembe
Prediction markets are pricing in a high likelihood that MetaMask's token will achieve a significant valuation upon launch. The leading contract, "Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?" is trading at 79¢, implying a 79% probability. This high confidence suggests the market views a debut fully diluted valuation exceeding $700 million as the strong base case. The $700 million threshold is one of five active markets, with others targeting $300M, $500M, $1B, and $3B FDVs. The steep drop in probability for higher targets, with "above $3B" priced at just 9%, indicates expectations for a major but not astronomical initial valuation.
Two primary factors support the bullish 79% probability for a $700M+ FDV. First, MetaMask's dominant market position as the leading non-custodial Web3 wallet, with over 30 million monthly active users, provides an unparalleled distribution channel and ecosystem leverage. This user base represents immediate, massive potential demand for a token, akin to successful launches from other foundational crypto infrastructure projects.
Second, the precedent set by comparable ecosystem token launches informs the valuation model. For instance, the Uniswap (UNI) token achieved a multi-billion dollar FDV at launch. While MetaMask's exact token utility is unconfirmed, its critical role as a gateway suggests a valuation comfortably in the high hundreds of millions, if not billions. The market is effectively pricing in a successful "airdrop" or similar distribution event that capitalizes on its extensive user network.
The single largest catalyst is an official announcement from Consensys, MetaMask's parent company, regarding concrete token launch plans, economics, and utility. Any delay or cancellation of a token before the market's resolution date of January 1, 2027, would cause the "No" outcome to surge in probability.
Furthermore, broader crypto market conditions at the time of launch will be critical. A launch during a bear market or a period of low liquidity could suppress initial trading and valuation below these thresholds, despite MetaMask's strengths. Conversely, a bull market could propel the FDV far beyond the current $1B (38% probability) and $3B (9% probability) market estimates, making the $700M target a near-certainty.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential launch and valuation of a native token for MetaMask, the world's most widely used cryptocurrency wallet. It specifically asks whether the token's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) will exceed a predetermined threshold one day after its public launch. FDV represents the theoretical maximum market capitalization of a cryptocurrency if all tokens in its total supply were in circulation and valued at the current market price. This metric is a critical, though often debated, indicator of a project's valuation and future potential in the crypto space. The resolution depends on the token being actively and publicly tradable, with the valuation snapshot taken at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch, using the most liquid available price source. The market has a deadline, resolving to 'No' if no token launch occurs by December 31, 2024. Interest in this topic is driven by MetaMask's dominant position as a gateway to decentralized finance (DeFi) and web3 for over 30 million monthly active users, making a potential token one of the most anticipated events in crypto. Speculation has been fueled by parent company Consensys's strategic moves, including securing substantial funding rounds and hints from executives about exploring a token to decentralize governance and reward its vast user base. The outcome will serve as a major sentiment indicator for the broader Ethereum and DeFi ecosystem.
The speculation around a MetaMask token has deep roots in the history of airdrops and governance tokens within the Ethereum ecosystem. A key precedent was the 2020 launch of the UNI governance token by Uniswap, which conducted a historic airdrop to past users of the decentralized exchange. This event, where early users received tokens worth thousands of dollars, established a 'retroactive airdrop' model and created intense community expectation for other foundational web3 projects to follow suit. Other major DeFi protocols like Aave and Compound had already launched governance tokens, further cementing the model. MetaMask itself has evolved from a simple browser extension for interacting with Ethereum, launched in 2016 by Consensys, into a comprehensive gateway for DeFi, NFTs, and blockchain gaming. Its growth accelerated during the DeFi summer of 2020 and the NFT boom of 2021, solidifying its position as critical infrastructure. Consensys has historically funded MetaMask's development through venture capital and its own corporate treasury, but the success of community-owned competitors and the broader industry shift toward decentralized governance has kept the token question perennially relevant. The failure of the 'MASK' ticker token by Mask Network in early 2021, which was mistakenly bought by users thinking it was a MetaMask token, highlighted the immense, pent-up market demand and the risks of confusion.
The launch and valuation of a MetaMask token would represent a pivotal moment in the maturation of web3 infrastructure, transitioning one of its most central, user-facing tools from a venture-backed product to a potentially community-owned and governed public good. A high FDV would signal strong market confidence in the sustainable monetization of the web3 gateway, validating Consensys's business model and potentially triggering a wave of similar tokenizations by other infrastructure projects. Economically, it could create significant wealth for early MetaMask adopters if an airdrop occurs, redistributing value to a global user base and incentivizing further ecosystem participation. Conversely, a low valuation or a poorly received token model could dampen sentiment toward Ethereum-based applications and raise questions about the viability of decentralizing core infrastructure. The event also carries regulatory significance, as a high-profile token launch by a major U.S.-based company like Consensys would attract scrutiny from bodies like the SEC, potentially setting precedents for how consumer-facing crypto tools navigate securities laws. The outcome will affect developers, investors, and the millions of everyday users who rely on MetaMask, influencing capital flows and development focus across the entire decentralized web.
As of late 2024, Consensys has not officially announced a MetaMask token. However, speculation remains at a fever pitch due to continuous hints and strategic moves. In April 2024, Consensys filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a move some analysts interpret as an effort to create regulatory clarity ahead of a potential token offering. Furthermore, Consensys has continued to expand MetaMask's functionality with features like Portfolio and Staking, building a more comprehensive product suite that could be underpinned by a native token. The company completed a significant $450 million funding round in 2022, reducing immediate financial pressure to launch a token, but also increasing investor expectations for a liquidity event. The prediction market itself reflects the active betting on the timing and scale of such a launch.
Fully Diluted Valuation is a cryptocurrency's market capitalization if its entire maximum or total token supply were in circulation and trading at the current market price. It is calculated as (Current Price per Token) x (Total Token Supply). Unlike market cap, which uses circulating supply, FDV accounts for tokens that are locked, reserved, or not yet released, providing a view of the project's potential future valuation.
No, MetaMask and its parent company Consensys have not made an official confirmation or announcement regarding a token launch. Company executives have acknowledged the strong community desire for a token in interviews and on social media but have consistently stated their primary focus is on product development, leaving the possibility open without committing to a timeline.
While unconfirmed, industry precedent suggests distribution could involve a retroactive airdrop to active MetaMask users, a sale to investors, allocations to the development team and treasury, and a community treasury for future governance. The specific eligibility criteria, snapshot dates, and percentages would be detailed in an official announcement if a launch occurs.
MetaMask is a cryptocurrency wallet and browser extension. 'MASK' is the ticker for the token of Mask Network, an entirely separate project focused on integrating web3 features into social media platforms. There is no official connection, and the MASK token is not associated with the MetaMask wallet, a common source of confusion in the market.
The valuation 24 hours after launch is a critical benchmark that captures the market's initial, hype-driven price discovery while allowing some stabilization from the absolute opening volatility. It provides a standardized, measurable point to assess the market's immediate valuation consensus before longer-term trends, such as token unlocks or usage metrics, begin to dominate price action.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 79% |
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 24% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 10% |
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