When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

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$33.48K

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When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $33.48K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.48K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	48%
Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	20%
Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	12%
Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	8%
Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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48%

Top Probability

$33.48K

Volume

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About This Event

In 2025 If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof, unless the market specifically includes counterexamples. Announcements

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2025

If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof, unless the market specifically includes counterexamples. Announcements

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $33.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.37M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 2. Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2035): Vol $465
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $14.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $13.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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