$6.60K
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$6.60K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before January 20th, 2029 If the next new United States Secretary of Homeland Security before Jan 20, 2029 is X then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed via a “recess appointment” are included, even if that recess appointment is later struck down as illegal. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a low-probability field for potential Homeland Security secretaries in a hypothetical second Trump term. The leading contract, speculating on former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, trades at just 26% on Kalshi. This price indicates the market views his appointment as possible but not probable, with significant uncertainty about the ultimate selection. The other available markets show even lower probabilities for individuals like Tom Homan and Stephen Miller, with total trading volume remaining thin at approximately $7,000. This low liquidity suggests a speculative, early-stage market still forming its consensus.
The primary factor is the absence of an official shortlist or clear frontrunner from the Trump campaign, leading to a dispersed and uncertain market. Glenn Youngkin’s relative prominence stems from his status as a successful Republican governor who has maintained a degree of distance from Trump, potentially representing a more conventional administrative pick. However, his 26% price reflects the major counter-factor, historical precedent. In his first term, Trump favored loyalists and immigration hardliners for key security roles, like Kirstjen Nielsen and acting secretaries Chad Wolf and Kevin McAleenan. This pattern makes dedicated immigration hawks and former administration officials logical contenders, keeping Youngkin’s odds in check.
The odds will remain volatile and speculative until concrete signals emerge from the Trump campaign or transition team. A decisive catalyst would be Trump publicly naming a preferred candidate or a shortlist becoming reported by major outlets like Axios or The Washington Post. The election outcome itself on November 5, 2024, is the foundational event, without which this market is purely hypothetical. Post-election, Senate composition will also be a key factor, as a contentious confirmation battle could deter Trump from nominating a highly polarizing figure, potentially boosting odds for a more confirmable candidate like Youngkin. Until then, the market will likely react to any rumors or personnel speculation from credible sources.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the appointment of the next United States Secretary of Homeland Security before January 20, 2029. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific individual, X, if they are confirmed by the Senate or appointed via a recess appointment to lead the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) during this timeframe. Acting or interim secretaries are excluded. The topic is significant because the DHS secretary oversees a vast federal agency with responsibilities for border security, immigration enforcement, cybersecurity, disaster response, and counterterrorism, making the appointment a critical national security and political decision. Interest is particularly high given the potential for a change in presidential administration following the 2024 election, which would trigger a new cabinet selection process. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will directly determine who has the authority to nominate the next confirmed DHS secretary, shaping the department's policy direction for years to come. Speculation focuses on individuals with relevant experience in law enforcement, immigration policy, or national security, and who align with the political priorities of the winning candidate's party.
The Department of Homeland Security was created in November 2002 in response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, consolidating 22 federal agencies. The position of Secretary of Homeland Security has seen considerable turnover and political contention since its inception. During the Trump administration, the department experienced unprecedented leadership instability. Kirstjen Nielsen, confirmed in December 2017, resigned in April 2019 amid policy disagreements with the President. Her successor, Kevin McAleenan, served in an acting capacity for seven months. He was followed by acting secretaries Chad Wolf and Pete Gaynor, with Wolf serving for over a year without ever being formally nominated for Senate confirmation. This period established a precedent for extended 'acting' leadership. In contrast, the Biden administration's nominee, Alejandro Mayorkas, was confirmed in February 2021 by a narrow 56-43 Senate vote, reflecting the deeply partisan nature of DHS leadership confirmations. The department's mission, particularly concerning border security and immigration, has consistently placed its secretary at the center of political battles, with confirmation processes often serving as proxies for broader policy debates.
The appointment of the DHS secretary has profound implications for national security, immigration policy, and domestic governance. The secretary oversees a workforce of over 260,000 employees and a budget exceeding $90 billion, directing resources for border patrol, airport security (TSA), disaster relief (FEMA), and cybersecurity defense. The policy direction set by the secretary directly affects the lives of millions, from migrants seeking asylum to American citizens traveling or recovering from natural disasters. A change in leadership can lead to significant shifts in enforcement priorities, international agreements on migration, and the nation's approach to emerging threats like cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure. Furthermore, the confirmation process itself is a major political event, testing the Senate's partisan dynamics and serving as a national referendum on the administration's security and immigration agenda. The outcome influences investor confidence, international relations with neighboring countries, and the operational morale of the department's vast workforce.
As of mid-2024, Alejandro Mayorkas remains the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Homeland Security under President Biden. The political landscape is dominated by the ongoing 2024 presidential campaign. President Biden is defending his administration's border record, while candidate Donald Trump is making immigration enforcement a cornerstone of his campaign. The House of Representatives impeached Secretary Mayorkas in February 2024 for allegedly refusing to enforce immigration laws, but a Senate trial is pending and unlikely to result in conviction. The immediate focus is on the November 2024 election, the result of which will set the stage for the next nomination and confirmation process for DHS Secretary, either in a second Biden term or a new Trump administration.
A president can temporarily appoint a secretary via a 'recess appointment' when the Senate is in recess, but such an appointment typically lasts only until the end of the next Senate session (usually about a year). For a permanent appointment, the nominee must be confirmed by a majority vote in the Senate. This market includes recess appointees.
Tom Ridge was the first Secretary of Homeland Security. He was appointed by President George W. Bush and served from January 2003 to February 2005 after the department's creation following the 9/11 attacks.
The secretary leads the third-largest federal department, with key responsibilities including preventing terrorism and enhancing security, securing and managing U.S. borders, enforcing immigration laws, safeguarding cyberspace, and ensuring resilience to disasters. The role is a blend of law enforcement, national security, and emergency management.
Yes, Alejandro Mayorkas is the first and only U.S. Cabinet secretary to be impeached in over 150 years, since Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876. The House impeached Mayorkas in February 2024 on charges of refusing to enforce immigration law and breaching public trust.
An acting secretary assumes the role temporarily, often under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, without going through Senate confirmation. They have the full legal authority of the office but may lack the perceived political legitimacy and long-term mandate of a confirmed secretary. This prediction market specifically excludes acting secretaries from its payout criterion.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will be Trump's next United States Secretary of Homeland Security? (Glenn Youngkin) | Kalshi | 26% |
Who will be Trump's next United States Secretary of Homeland Security? (No new person) | Kalshi | 20% |
Who will be Trump's next United States Secretary of Homeland Security? (Jason Chaffetz) | Kalshi | 16% |
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