$61.24K
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$61.24K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by January 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Oth
Prediction markets currently assign an 85% probability that "The Rip" will be the top US Netflix movie for the week ending January 19, 2026. This high confidence level, trading at 85 cents on Polymarket, indicates traders view its continued dominance as very likely. With only 15 cents combined across all other potential films, the market sees minimal chance for an upset. The $44,000 in total trading volume, while not massive, represents significant conviction for a specific weekly entertainment outcome.
Two primary factors are solidifying "The Rip" as the consensus favorite. First, the film is a major Netflix original action thriller starring a top-tier A-list actor, a genre and star-power combination that consistently drives high initial viewership on the platform. Its release on January 9, 2026, positions it perfectly in the middle of the measurement week, capturing its peak demand period. Second, historical patterns show that major Netflix tentpole releases typically dominate the Top 10 for at least two to three weeks post-launch, as the platform's algorithm promotes them heavily on user homepages. There is no comparable major new movie release from Netflix or a licensed studio blockbuster scheduled for January 12-18 that is expected to challenge it.
The primary risk to the current pricing is an unexpected viral surge for a competing film. A dark horse candidate could be a licensed library title that benefits from a sudden trend on social media platforms like TikTok, driving re-watches or new discovery. However, for such an event to unseat a new, heavily marketed original, the cultural moment would need to be significant. The market will closely monitor any early social media buzz or industry tracking over the weekend preceding the Tuesday data release. The odds could shift rapidly if credible data leaks suggest a closer race than currently anticipated, but the concentrated liquidity on "Yes" suggests traders see that as a low-probability event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on determining which film will rank as the number one most-watched movie on Netflix in the United States for a specific weekly period ending on January 19, 2026. The resolution is based on the official update to Netflix's Top 10 Movies list, which is published every Tuesday at 3:00 PM Eastern Time on the company's dedicated website, top10.netflix.com. This list reflects the total viewership of movies from the prior Monday through Sunday, providing a transparent, data-driven snapshot of American streaming habits. The market resolves to the film occupying the top position in that update, offering a clear metric for tracking the performance of Netflix's vast film library in its most important market. People are interested in this topic because it serves as a real-time cultural barometer, indicating which stories, stars, and genres are resonating with the American public at any given moment. It is closely monitored by industry analysts, filmmakers, and competitors as a key indicator of streaming success and audience preferences. The weekly race for the top spot is highly competitive, often featuring a mix of new Netflix original releases, major licensed theatrical films, and surprise hits that capture the public's imagination, making its outcome both unpredictable and significant within the entertainment ecosystem.
Netflix's public reporting of viewership data is a relatively recent development, initiated in response to industry demands for greater transparency. For years, the company was famously secretive about its viewership numbers, referring only to vague metrics like 'household reach.' This changed in February 2020 when Netflix launched a public website ranking its top ten most-watched shows and movies in the UK. The global Top 10 site, top10.netflix.com, launched in November 2021, providing weekly rankings for over 90 countries, including the United States. The methodology defines a 'view' as having watched at least two minutes of a title, a standard the company adopted to align with industry peers. Historically, the top movie spot in the US has been dominated by a combination of major Netflix original film releases, such as 'Red Notice' in November 2021, and high-profile licensed content, such as 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' when it debuted on the service in 2022. The weekly chart has become a consistent feature of entertainment news coverage, with outlets like Variety and The Wrap regularly reporting on the rankings and analyzing trends in viewer behavior.
The weekly competition for the top Netflix movie spot has significant economic and cultural implications. For Netflix, securing the number one position with an original film is a major marketing victory that validates its massive content spending, which exceeded $17 billion in 2023, and helps attract and retain subscribers in a fiercely competitive streaming market. For filmmakers and talent, a top ranking can translate into increased visibility, leverage for future projects, and often triggers lucrative bonus payments tied to performance milestones. Culturally, the list acts as a democratized popularity contest, revealing what narratives and genres are capturing the national mood, whether it's a big-budget action spectacle, a heartfelt drama, or a family-friendly animated feature. This data influences not only Netflix's own future greenlight decisions but also signals to the broader Hollywood industry what types of films resonate in the streaming-first era, potentially shaping production trends across the entertainment landscape.
As of early 2026, Netflix's Top 10 list remains a cornerstone of its transparency efforts and a key cultural touchstone. The service continues to release a high volume of original films while also securing streaming rights to major theatrical releases after their exclusive windows. The competition for the weekly top spot is dynamic, often influenced by new release promotions, seasonal events, and viral social media buzz. The film slate for January 2026 would be the primary determinant of the contenders for the week in question, likely featuring a mix of holiday holdovers, new January releases, and perennial library favorites.
Netflix counts a 'view' when an account watches a title for at least two minutes. This standardized metric is used to rank films and TV shows based on their total hours viewed within a specific country during the weekly reporting period from Monday to Sunday.
Netflix updates its global Top 10 website every Tuesday at 12:00 PM Pacific Time, which is 3:00 PM Eastern Time. This update reflects the viewing data from the previous Monday through Sunday.
Yes, it is common for popular films, especially major Netflix originals or hit licensed movies, to remain at the number one spot for several consecutive weeks. The current record is held by 'The Gray Man,' which topped the US film chart for 14 weeks in 2022.
The official, weekly Top 10 lists for movies and TV in over 90 countries are published on Netflix's dedicated website at top10.netflix.com. The site allows users to filter by country, category (film or TV), and week.
Yes, Netflix's ranking is based on total viewership, meaning multiple views from the same account for the same title are all counted. The metric is total hours viewed, not unique accounts.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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