$932.70K
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$932.70K
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MS
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 3 chance that MicroStrategy will be removed from a major MSCI stock index before the end of 2024. With roughly $930,000 wagered on this and related questions, traders collectively see a delisting as possible but not the most likely outcome. This suggests a cautious but real concern among those following the company's stock.
Two main factors explain the current 33% probability. First, MicroStrategy’s recent performance and business focus are unusual for a traditional index component. The company, once known for business software, now holds billions of dollars in Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Its stock price often moves more with cryptocurrency prices than with corporate earnings or its core business results. This makes it behave very differently from typical large companies in the MSCI USA or World indexes.
Second, MSCI periodically reviews and rebalances its indexes. Companies can be removed if they no longer meet criteria for size, liquidity, or other financial standards. While MicroStrategy is still a large company, its extreme volatility and unique risk profile could lead MSCI to decide it doesn’t fit well with the other stocks in its mainstream indexes. The market’s 33% chance reflects this ongoing debate between its substantial market value and its atypical characteristics.
The main events are MSCI’s quarterly index reviews. These typically happen in February, May, August, and November, with announcements a few weeks in advance. Any announcement from MSCI regarding a change to MicroStrategy’s index membership would immediately settle this prediction.
Other signals include significant drops in MicroStrategy’s stock price or market value, which could push it below MSCI’s size thresholds. Major swings in the price of Bitcoin would also be relevant, as they directly impact the company’s valuation and perceived stability.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on corporate events like index changes. They are good at aggregating diverse opinions from people who have money at stake. However, the 33% probability here is not a sure forecast. It is a snapshot of current sentiment, which can shift quickly if new information emerges. The biggest limitation is that the final decision rests entirely with MSCI’s committee, whose specific deliberations are not public. Markets can assess the odds, but they cannot see inside that private decision-making process.
The Polymarket contract "Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?" is trading at 33¢, indicating a 33% probability that MicroStrategy will be removed from either the MSCI World or MSCI USA Index by the end of 2026. This price suggests the market views a removal as a distinct possibility, but still sees the company maintaining its index status as the more likely outcome. The market has attracted nearly $1 million in volume, showing significant trader interest in this corporate governance and crypto-adjacent event.
The 33% probability is primarily driven by MicroStrategy's unique and volatile fundamental profile. The company functions as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, with its market valuation heavily correlated to BTC price swings rather than traditional software earnings. MSCI indexes have strict criteria for size, liquidity, and financial viability. A sustained downturn in Bitcoin's price could pressure MicroStrategy's stock, potentially breaching MSCI's minimum market capitalization or liquidity requirements. The company's high debt load, taken on to purchase Bitcoin, adds financial risk that index providers monitor.
Historical precedent also informs the price. While rare, MSCI has removed companies for failing to meet continued listing standards. Traders are pricing in the risk that MicroStrategy's unconventional business strategy could eventually clash with the conservative, rules-based methodology of major index providers.
Two primary catalysts could shift the probability significantly before the December 2026 expiry. The first is Bitcoin's price trajectory. A major bear market, pushing BTC well below key levels like $40,000, would severely stress MicroStrategy's balance sheet and stock price, increasing the odds of an MSCI review and potential removal. Conversely, a strong bull market would bolster the company's metrics and likely suppress the "Yes" probability.
The second catalyst is MSCI's scheduled quarterly index reviews. These occur in February, May, August, and November. Any announcement from MSCI regarding a change in MicroStrategy's classification or a public consultation on its eligibility would cause immediate and dramatic repricing. The market will likely become more reactive as each quarterly review date passes without a change, gradually pushing the "No" probability higher unless a fundamental deterioration occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether MicroStrategy Incorporated will be removed from major MSCI equity indexes by March 31, 2026. MicroStrategy, a publicly-traded business intelligence software company, has become a significant proxy for Bitcoin exposure due to its corporate strategy of converting substantial cash reserves into Bitcoin holdings. The company's inclusion in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes subjects it to periodic reviews by MSCI's Index Committee, which assesses companies based on market capitalization, liquidity, and other governance criteria. A removal could be triggered by factors like declining market cap relative to peers, reduced trading liquidity, or a fundamental change in business focus that no longer aligns with index methodology. Investor interest stems from MicroStrategy's unique position as a traditional equity that functions as a leveraged Bitcoin investment vehicle. Under CEO Michael Saylor's leadership, the company has acquired over 214,000 Bitcoin as of early 2025, making its stock performance heavily correlated with cryptocurrency markets rather than its core software operations. This divergence creates uncertainty about its long-term fit within traditional equity indexes designed to represent specific economic sectors or market segments. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if MSCI announces MicroStrategy's removal from either the MSCI World Index or MSCI USA Index, including transfers between MSCI indexes. MSCI typically announces index changes quarterly, with implementation occurring at month-end. The March 2026 deadline allows observation through multiple review cycles, capturing potential reactions to Bitcoin price volatility, regulatory changes affecting crypto holdings, or shifts in MicroStrategy's business metrics. This topic intersects cryptocurrency markets, corporate finance, and index fund management. Billions of dollars in passive investment funds track MSCI indexes, meaning inclusion decisions directly affect buying and selling pressure on constituent stocks. A removal could signal institutional skepticism about companies with substantial cryptocurrency exposure, potentially influencing how other firms approach digital asset adoption on corporate balance sheets.
MicroStrategy was founded in 1989 and went public in 1998. For its first two decades, the company operated strictly as a business intelligence and mobile software provider. Its inclusion in major indexes reflected this traditional technology sector profile. The turning point arrived on August 11, 2020, when MicroStrategy announced its first Bitcoin purchase of 21,454 BTC for $250 million. This marked the beginning of a strategic shift unprecedented among large public companies. By April 2021, MicroStrategy had accumulated approximately 91,579 Bitcoin, surpassing the Bitcoin holdings of many dedicated cryptocurrency funds. The company financed these purchases through multiple convertible debt offerings, taking advantage of low interest rates. This transformation occurred while MicroStrategy maintained its listing on the NASDAQ and its positions in various equity indexes. MSCI had previously removed companies from indexes for reasons including sustained market capitalization decline, liquidity problems, or corporate actions like mergers. For example, in 2020, MSCI removed dozens of Chinese companies from its indexes following U.S. government sanctions. The precedent most relevant to MicroStrategy involves companies whose business focus fundamentally changes. When Tesla was added to the S&P 500 in 2020, some index providers created new classifications for electric vehicle companies. Similarly, when Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) changed its corporate name and focus to the metaverse, it remained in indexes but prompted methodology discussions. MicroStrategy's case is more extreme because its market valuation now derives primarily from Bitcoin holdings rather than operating business earnings, creating tension with index methodologies designed to categorize companies by economic activity.
A removal from MSCI indexes would trigger immediate selling pressure from index funds and ETFs that automatically track these benchmarks. Analysts estimate that over $1 trillion in assets benchmarked to the MSCI USA Index alone could be affected by constituent changes. This mechanical selling could depress MicroStrategy's stock price independently of Bitcoin market movements, affecting shareholders who view the stock as a Bitcoin proxy. The decision would signal how traditional financial institutions view cryptocurrency-heavy corporations. If MSCI determines that MicroStrategy no longer represents a conventional software company, other firms considering Bitcoin treasury strategies might reconsider. Conversely, if MicroStrategy maintains its index position despite Bitcoin dominance, it could encourage more corporate Bitcoin adoption. The outcome also tests the flexibility of index methodologies designed before digital assets became significant corporate holdings, potentially forcing index providers to create new classifications or criteria.
As of April 2025, MicroStrategy remains a constituent of both the MSCI World Index and MSCI USA Index. The company completed its latest quarterly index review period in February 2025 with no changes announced regarding MicroStrategy. Bitcoin's price recovery throughout 2024 and early 2025 has increased the value of MicroStrategy's holdings, supporting its market capitalization above index inclusion thresholds. In May 2024, MicroStrategy completed a 10-for-1 stock split aimed at making shares more accessible to individual investors. This corporate action did not affect its index eligibility. The company continues to report financial results that show minimal growth in its traditional software business, with nearly all shareholder value tied to Bitcoin price movements. MSCI has not published any special commentary regarding cryptocurrency-heavy corporations in its methodology updates.
Index funds and ETFs tracking MSCI indexes would sell their MicroStrategy holdings, creating immediate downward pressure on the stock price. The exact impact depends on how many shares these passive funds own, typically 5-15% of outstanding shares for mid-cap companies. The stock might also lose visibility among institutional investors who use MSCI indexes as benchmarks.
MSCI's Index Committee follows published methodology focusing on market capitalization, liquidity, and free float availability. Companies can be removed if their market cap falls below size thresholds, if trading volume becomes insufficient, or if corporate actions like mergers change their structure. The committee also considers whether a company still represents its original industry classification.
No precedent exists for index removal specifically due to cryptocurrency holdings. MSCI has removed companies for various reasons including delisting, bankruptcy, or failure to meet size requirements. MicroStrategy's situation is novel because it remains a viable company whose assets just happen to be predominantly Bitcoin rather than traditional business assets.
Yes, MSCI could reclassify MicroStrategy to a different index if they determine it better fits another category. For example, they might create a new digital assets category or move it to a more specialized index. This prediction market counts transfers as 'Yes' resolutions because they represent removal from the specified indexes.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 33% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 2% |
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