Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
PM $1.22M
1
1
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
PM $1.22M
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 89.5%.
Polymarket
- December 3189.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.22M
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T03:00:06.099Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied source is a Polymarket event titled "Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?" [1]. The rules say the market resolves Yes if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index, and that a transfer between MSCI indexes also counts as a removal [1]. An official MSCI announcement is sufficient for a Yes resolution, and the stated resolution source is official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting [1].
The rules and the market label do not agree on the deadline. The rule text says the market resolves Yes if removal happens "by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The market title and the listed end time instead point to December 31 and 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. The source does not explain this difference, so a reader should check the full rule text on the platform before relying on either date. The listed end time is a contract close time, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The market shows two outcomes: Yes at 0.935 and No at 0.065 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, but the source does not show bid and ask depth, so the prices do not establish how much could be traded at them.
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-21T03:00:06.099Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-21T05:06:54.873Z [1]. The provider reported the status as active [1]. The retrieval time is when this record was collected, and it does not confirm the market's status at any later moment.
The sample includes one market from one provider event, and it is not a partial sample [1]. Because no other outcomes or platforms are included, this record cannot be compared with other contracts or combined with other rankings.
What remains uncertain
The source does not show whether MicroStrategy has been removed from either index, whether MSCI has announced any change, or what has driven the price. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or how many traders hold each position. Volume is not liquidity or a trader count, and a difference in price between this contract and a similar one on another platform would not by itself reveal an opportunity, since the wording, deadline, and resolution rules may differ.
References
- Polymarket: Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T03:00:06.099Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 21, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract asking whether MicroStrategy will be removed from an MSCI index. The saved rules state that the market resolves "Yes" if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also say that a transfer of MicroStrategy from one MSCI index to another would count as a removal for this market [1]. The contract's label and its rule text do not match on the deadline. The market title in the saved data reads "Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?" [1], while the rule text names March 31, 2026 [1]. The saved listed end time is 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. A contract's end date is a provider setting and does not by itself show when any index change happened or was announced. Readers should check the provider's current rule text before relying on either date. The saved snapshot shows a Yes price of 0.935 and a No price of 0.065 [1]. These are observed prices from the provider at the time of capture, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved evidence does not show whether MicroStrategy has been removed from either index, whether an MSCI announcement has been made, or how the contract has resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, narrow event: whether MicroStrategy leaves the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index, or moves between those indexes, by the deadline stated in the rules [1]. Because a transfer counts as a removal, the contract is not limited to a full deletion from the index family [1]. The rules also specify that an official MSCI announcement is enough for a Yes outcome, and that otherwise the resolution relies on consensus reporting [1]. The rule text therefore defines both the event and the evidence that settles it, which matters more than the price when reading the contract.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-21 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event triggers a Yes resolution?
A Yes resolution occurs if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by the deadline in the rules [1]. A transfer from one MSCI index to another also counts as a removal under the saved rules [1].
What date does the contract use?
The rule text names March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The market title in the saved data says December 31, and the listed end time is 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. The saved evidence does not explain this difference, so the provider's current rules should be checked.
What sources settle the contract?
The rules name official MSCI communication as the resolution source, and say that an official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer is sufficient for Yes. Otherwise, the resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Does the saved price show how likely removal is?
The saved snapshot shows Yes at 0.935 and No at 0.065 [1]. These are prices from one provider observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed likelihood of removal.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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